Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd155566be8b8ed5db110a4dbc9280b4c0c2a9c0e4a6810c63e4f5963694a522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Chelsea FC, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Chelsea FC | 26c | 18,823$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 12,321$9,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,923.29 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC | 10c | 2,010$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.78 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 1,585$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.42 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 75c | 589.28$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.32 | 584 | 46.1%269 W · 315 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 74c | 494.47$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.26 | 1,923 | 42.4%815 W · 1,108 L | -42.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Nottingham Forest FC | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 553 | 51.9%287 W · 266 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 74c | 337$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb41…8536backed Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 260.37$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Chelsea FC | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…a7c3backed Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Chelsea FC | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeff…42fbbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 136.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…eae4backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 128.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af2…f92fbacked Chelsea FC | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Nottingham Forest FC | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 75.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Chelsea FC | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Nottingham Forest FC | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…4394backed Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Nottingham Forest FC | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…f829backed Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 76c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 184 | 63%116 W · 68 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.