Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1df3868200b7b9523b8b6e85c678ff9c1227ce8e90c603d322f0d1309f4a3089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 18,164$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,796.91 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…1937backed Under | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 2,028$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.78 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 19c | 1,697$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.64 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Under | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 19c | 1,054$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.26 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Over | 80c | 875$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 17c | 724$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…50d1backed Under | 18c | 682.11$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e9…1010backed Over | 80c | 601.21$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 20c | 428.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 13c | 398.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 19c | 372.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 598 | 47.7%285 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 19c | 316.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 80c | 261.81$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d4…fe2dbacked Under | 18c | 228.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 80c | 201.53$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 264 | 44.7%118 W · 146 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 18c | 105.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Under | 19c | 102.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Under | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 34cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Under | 18c | 88.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 105 | 35.2%37 W · 68 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…3b36backed Under | 21c | 50.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 80c | 46.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 76c | 41.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…7580backed Over | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…9db0backed Over | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a4…7bc9backed Over | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 80c | 30.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 810 | 53.6%434 W · 376 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…ff77backed Over | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 80c | 26.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 337 | 51.3%173 W · 164 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82fc…ed4ebacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…f6c1backed Over | 80c | 24.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…3e9fbacked Over | 80c | 21.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Over | 80c | 14.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Chelsea FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.