Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x224fb78876c7c417aec4489b7d4a4f514e5ae7e0b05a96562f39a101248ccfe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelsea FCof Nottingham Forest FC, Chelsea FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 1c | 17,352$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.05 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3f…f75dbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Chelsea FC | 41c | 4,900$2,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,886.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Chelsea FC | 37c | 2,800$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.18 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Nottingham Forest FC | 14c | 2,460$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.84 | 252 | 25%63 W · 189 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Chelsea FC | 43c | 1,250$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.5 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 1c | 1,029$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 173 | 27.2%47 W · 126 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…500fbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 790$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…6cd7backed Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 771$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…c62fbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 766$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa670…2d5cbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 755$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…8a95backed Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 753$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c0…e106backed Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 742$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…0cf5backed Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 739$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…cb79backed Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 735$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Nottingham Forest FC | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nottingham Forest FC | 58c | 584.02$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.72 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…d702backed Nottingham Forest FC | 22c | 422.58$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Nottingham Forest FC | 64c | 392.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Nottingham Forest FC | 59c | 374.98$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.22 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Chelsea FC | 28c | 353$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Chelsea FC | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Nottingham Forest FC | 58c | 253.55$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…d11dbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 12c | 126.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Nottingham Forest FC | 59c | 122.21$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8919…0688backed Nottingham Forest FC | 35c | 109.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Nottingham Forest FC | 14c | 105.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Nottingham Forest FC | 58c | 103.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chelsea FC | 37c | 102.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Chelsea FC | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Nottingham Forest FC | 26c | 94.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 57c | 88.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…caadbacked Chelsea FC | 46c | 57.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Chelsea FC | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…7483backed Nottingham Forest FC | 57c | 52.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 49c | 51.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Nottingham Forest FC | 47c | 51.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…afedbacked Chelsea FC | 44c | 45.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…4acebacked Nottingham Forest FC | 51c | 39.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 45%63 W · 77 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…49dabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Nottingham Forest FC | 58c | 29.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…1fbfbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Chelsea FC | 42c | 28.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…1ddabacked Nottingham Forest FC | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Nottingham Forest FC | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked Nottingham Forest FC | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.