TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Grayson Allen: Points O/U 13.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,162 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfcf4…66bbbacked Yes3c2,675$77 inLost-$76.545538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-27.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No67c1,091$733 inWon+$358.1765762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c66…0a4fbacked Yes33c528.83$175 inLost-$174.882015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-61.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x802e…76fdbacked No77c174.34$134 inWon+$40.825887.9%51 W · 7 L+13.6wins+0.24per pick64cpaid+35.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xfdce…1588backed Yes15c116.14$18 inLost-$17.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6840…9797backed Yes32c100.2$32 inLost-$32450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b8…9bdfbacked Yes30c100$30 inLost-$30933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d1…439ebacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost-$203357.6%19 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost-$2020040%80 W · 120 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes44c47$21 inLost-$20.689031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked No76c41.44$32 inWon+$9.810955%60 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes34c32.55$11 inLost-$10.944434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe299…761bbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost-$1031540.3%127 W · 188 L-15.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No71c30$21 inWon+$8.71,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No72c21.09$15 inWon+$5.894,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed No70c16.69$12 inWon+$5.041,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.