TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$491,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $491,802 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93ab…9723backed Suns50c105,827$52,913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,913.460351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Timberwolves50c81,805$40,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,902.2523147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns49c77,739$38,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,09287144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Suns48c65,785$31,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,775.291,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Timberwolves52c65,000$33,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,20032653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Timberwolves51c40,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,599.824257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Timberwolves51c34,070$17,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,694.0937747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Timberwolves52c22,000$11,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,67058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Suns49c20,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,799.996546.2%30 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves48c19,263$9,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,038.74,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Suns49c18,930$9,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,219.171,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d36…68fdbacked Suns54c18,517$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00012740.9%52 W · 75 L-15.3wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-22.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Timberwolves50c17,843$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,843.1433447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12af…ff78backed Suns49c17,275$8,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,464.643447.1%16 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c74…4ef0backed Timberwolves51c11,604$5,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,685.9218749.2%92 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves50c11,000$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4801,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Suns49c10,204$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Timberwolves50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,00026648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e9…5c74backed Timberwolves51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,900650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Timberwolves51c9,035$4,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,427.2948546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Suns49c9,000$4,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,409.9966250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Timberwolves49c7,724$3,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,939.0526253.8%141 W · 121 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Timberwolves52c7,500$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,60074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Suns50c7,198$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.29,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Timberwolves50c7,168$3,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,569.3831643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4f4…ed78backed Timberwolves51c6,804$3,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,333.921662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves49c6,378$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,252.994,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7088…8b9bbacked Timberwolves51c6,275$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,074.51850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ac…346fbacked Timberwolves51c5,882$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,882.351421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-61%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Suns49c5,033$2,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.896,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4501,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Suns51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.9227455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc1ae…f001backed Timberwolves51c4,960$2,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,430.414245.8%65 W · 77 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Timberwolves51c4,872$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,387.2630446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves50c4,752$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.418,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Suns48c4,394$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.9572648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Timberwolves51c4,166$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.3425049.2%123 W · 127 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Suns48c4,125$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves51c4,039$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,996.064,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Suns50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Suns49c4,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,96024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Suns49c3,500$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72014448.6%70 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Suns49c3,061$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b3b…f973backed Suns48c2,951$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc5f…831cbacked Suns48c2,893$1,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa759…3271backed Timberwolves52c2,867$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.14250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3be…8241backed Suns48c2,846$1,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,366.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b0…4e59backed Timberwolves52c2,749$1,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,319.522100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e62…c40cbacked Timberwolves52c2,695$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,293.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd538…ce74backed Timberwolves52c2,676$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e5…2ad0backed Timberwolves52c2,650$1,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c8…db71backed Timberwolves52c2,602$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns49c2,555$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,246.833,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Timberwolves47c2,553$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.528429.8%25 W · 59 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff96…30f6backed Suns48c2,527$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ab…1421backed Suns48c2,518$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.6420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5df…b6b9backed Suns48c2,506$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Suns51c2,200$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12282442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed Timberwolves49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0206939.1%27 W · 42 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Timberwolves51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7817349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Timberwolves50c1,800$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9002,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Suns50c1,719$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.361,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Suns50c1,700$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Suns50c1,567$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791.3957650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Suns51c1,538$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.941947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Timberwolves50c1,493$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.314,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Timberwolves51c1,492$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.3217953.1%95 W · 84 L+7.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Timberwolves49c1,481$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.6247542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f6e…84b4backed Timberwolves51c1,312$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.665349.1%26 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x960e…77d6backed Timberwolves52c1,058$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.693953.8%21 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Suns51c1,025$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.5430453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc443…359bbacked Suns49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023845%107 W · 131 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns45c1,015$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.755,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4278…0e92backed Timberwolves52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48041652.2%217 W · 199 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Suns49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49043247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Suns51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.9925155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Suns51c962.03$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.3348751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked Suns53c939.62$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4985044%22 W · 28 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Suns48c937.11$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.813,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Suns48c913.91$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.682,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221d…e800backed Timberwolves50c852.06$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.131464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Suns48c847.8$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.9416338.7%63 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Suns60c833.42$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020963.2%132 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Suns49c824.06$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.262,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Suns49c816$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8421045.2%95 W · 115 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Timberwolves52c812.22$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.2213750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Timberwolves50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40015240.8%62 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Timberwolves49c786.19$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.9671449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4c8…2399backed Suns49c786$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.141643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ba7…d27abacked Timberwolves52c779$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.921656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Timberwolves50c723.96$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36189853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a67…ef6bbacked Suns50c652$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.8726756.2%150 W · 117 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5302…0a6fbacked Timberwolves53c619.95$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.3811957.1%68 W · 51 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Suns49c607.96$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.922140.7%90 W · 131 L+0.7wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Suns50c597.29$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.5551438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Timberwolves52c576$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.4823553.6%126 W · 109 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Suns50c560.94$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.4722552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe905…0efbbacked Suns49c522.8$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.172665.4%17 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+20.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4630…1968backed Suns51c512.29$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2712650%63 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Timberwolves49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25526353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.