TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Naz Reid: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,495 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No62c1,894$1,176 inWon+$717.71,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes37c1,395$517 inLost-$517.3865762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes37c448$164 inLost-$164.4844747%210 W · 237 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed Yes41c439.02$180 inLost-$1808342.2%35 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No61c318.57$196 inWon+$122.864,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2c…d5cdbacked No79c111$88 inWon+$22.935263.5%33 W · 19 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No62c100$62 inWon+$38.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Yes39c90.82$36 inLost-$35.8215651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb68…dc8bbacked Yes19c90$17 inLost-$17.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No61c67.82$41 inWon+$26.590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4066…e3c3backed Yes39c62.82$24 inLost-$24.59031.1%28 W · 62 L-8.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes47c53.68$25 inLost-$2518742.8%80 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfe7…4dbfbacked Yes44c38.03$17 inLost-$16.72161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed No64c30$19 inWon+$10.890357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked No59c20$12 inWon+$8.277549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a6…a36cbacked No55c19$10 inWon+$8.551464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No60c16.67$10 inWon+$6.6797049.5%480 W · 490 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.