NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce8c4e43cf290b10942af42d6b254bae7c0dda7e8abd9a2e4523a7f6c3248093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a57…2afabacked Over | 53c | 32,376$17,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,098.42 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 17,885$8,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,365.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 48c | 9,238$4,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,803.5 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 5,175$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,675.18 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 50c | 4,969$2,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484.72 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 3,572$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.84 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 50c | 2,540$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 51c | 2,476$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.48 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf4…e3a6backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…d765backed Under | 50c | 1,332$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 1,330$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.89 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…49cebacked Under | 51c | 1,322$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.57 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 2c | 976.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 493 | 45.2%223 W · 270 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 451.52$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Under | 50c | 216.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 50c | 109.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 19c | 100.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Under | 47c | 100.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Over | 53c | 95.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 79.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 53c | 56.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Under | 47c | 54.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 56c | 54.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 53.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 45c | 52.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 33.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 50c | 22.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 21.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…11ffbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.