NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77b45150122583014888cac770a0d680bc2e46645cf82374947322da858f8ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 52c | 62,425$32,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32,207.85 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Under | 48c | 20,000$9,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,400 | 354 | 50.8%180 W · 174 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 19,890$9,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,482.53 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 12,504$6,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,376.83 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 49c | 5,527$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.01 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 49c | 5,452$2,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,780.38 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked Under | 49c | 5,329$2,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.87 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 51c | 4,299$2,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.35 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…6d6bbacked Over | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.99 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Over | 56c | 3,571$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 49c | 2,755$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.1 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 2,294$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.85 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 2,084$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.43 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 47c | 1,684$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.65 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 49c | 851.02$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.02 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 786.54$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.14 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Under | 44c | 724.99$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 50c | 663.26$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.63 | 219 | 48.9%107 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 563.77$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Over | 53c | 505.05$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.52 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 46c | 450$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 49c | 242.34$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 49c | 196.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.09 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d3…9af1backed Under | 46c | 149$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 126 | 42.1%53 W · 73 L | -11.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 111.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.09 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…7f3bbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 49c | 99.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 51c | 98.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 88.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9345…3869backed Over | 56c | 87.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb640…9ebcbacked Over | 51c | 71.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Over | 55c | 65.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Over | 51c | 59.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 57c | 56.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 44c | 51.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 52c | 48.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7df5backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…ea80backed Under | 49c | 40.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…3ab9backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 37.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c1…140abacked Over | 51c | 36.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…eb06backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f4…e2a5backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under | 48c | 27.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 454 | 60.4%274 W · 180 L | +21.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…222bbacked Under | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 182 | 50%91 W · 91 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 51c | 25.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 49c | 23.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…b0fbbacked Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…a573backed Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fe…068ebacked Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.