NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d1d8340fccf46686fde680a077093bf07cff22778d960dc1d4c000866bbb25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 40c | 2,140$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.71 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 40c | 2,027$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.97 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 1,225$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 44c | 1,055$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.14 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…f628backed Over | 56c | 895.41$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.59 | 348 | 55.2%192 W · 156 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 39c | 572.84$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.27 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0a…c2c4backed Over | 62c | 484.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 286.88$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.33 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 60c | 150.11$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…6a15backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…60a1backed Under | 40c | 125.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 41c | 121.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 60c | 99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 50c | 89.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x871b…b344backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 60c | 75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 73.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 56c | 70.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 42c | 69.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 40c | 58.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Over | 53c | 57.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 61c | 56.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 54c | 51.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 49.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Under | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…0c80backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 52c | 32.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80b4…c9abbacked Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…2988backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 42c | 25.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb16d…9760backed Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481e…de2bbacked Over | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 60c | 20.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.