TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-16.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Nets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$185,483
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,490

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,483 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Nets49c40,000$19,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,642.2951350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Nets49c38,093$18,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,846.2160351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Thunder51c24,494$12,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,124.1124053.8%129 W · 111 L+12.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Thunder51c17,470$8,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,560.324045.4%109 W · 131 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder51c17,305$8,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,409.499,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Nets49c15,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3501,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder51c11,880$6,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,863.634,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Thunder51c11,355$5,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,604.9344352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Nets49c11,261$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50017241.9%72 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Thunder52c9,656$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,656.2126648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Thunder51c8,627$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,227.4524847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Nets50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5a4…5780backed Nets46c6,523$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000.413135.5%11 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-23.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Thunder52c5,746$2,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.8870246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder50c5,200$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.81,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Nets49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Thunder52c4,943$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,388.484,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder52c4,000$2,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9201,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Thunder50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00033945.1%153 W · 186 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Nets50c3,756$1,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.8682442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Nets50c3,191$1,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.741,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Thunder52c3,000$1,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,454.9769149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Thunder52c2,909$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,396.7519445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder49c2,500$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.55,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed Thunder53c2,000$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94045850.4%231 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Thunder52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$959.991,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Nets49c1,939$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.643,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf51…4a30backed Nets52c1,924$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00076746.4%356 W · 411 L-16.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder52c1,553$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.384,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Thunder54c1,319$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.7458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Nets48c1,307$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.861,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Nets50c1,271$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.872,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked Nets49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50024050.8%122 W · 118 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed Thunder53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47029149.5%144 W · 147 L+1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Thunder53c999.89$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.9526149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa62e…8885backed Nets50c964.4$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.39per pick56cpaid-78.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder51c959$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.756,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdab9…cdfcbacked Nets51c926.37$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4705437%20 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Thunder50c834.18$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.423,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Nets44c795$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.854747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets45c757.81$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.428,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Nets48c620.4$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.6217233.7%58 W · 114 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder50c577.45$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Thunder50c517.04$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.22,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672a…abb7backed Nets50c434.24$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.121442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Nets11c418.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0315534.2%53 W · 102 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nets53c399.99$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21223644.1%104 W · 132 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b0…ea3bbacked Thunder57c360$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.815154.3%82 W · 69 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Thunder51c309.99$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.918743.3%81 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Nets48c306.36$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2840546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nets48c264.67$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.32,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Thunder6c250$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23527937.3%104 W · 175 L+57.6wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+187%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xb314…aacbbacked Nets51c248.42$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.651656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Thunder46c245.33$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.482,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Nets50c242.87$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.4441947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5307…e986backed Nets50c222.67$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Nets48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052242.7%223 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f4…7753backed Nets51c203.82$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9530%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Thunder49c190.36$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.4791148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…05d8backed Thunder53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.682532%8 W · 17 L-5.3wins-0.21per pick53cpaid-41.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbc8c…d58cbacked Thunder57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.448043.8%35 W · 45 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Thunder49c172.75$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.192753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Thunder47c164$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9266646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Thunder52c159.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7959144.5%263 W · 328 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nets45c155$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.115,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Thunder48c149.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9968645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Nets49c142.24$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.123845.4%108 W · 130 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Thunder54c131.94$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.021,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a97…c1f9backed Thunder54c128.52$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1217960.9%109 W · 70 L+17.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc208…e74fbacked Thunder54c128.5$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.117251.4%37 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Nets48c118$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.649657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8efa…b970backed Nets50c103$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbf…a83fbacked Thunder51c103$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Thunder45c102.16$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.821,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Nets48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.589050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcc63…f1c7backed Nets47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4750653.2%269 W · 237 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc998…f060backed Nets62c92.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9912458.9%73 W · 51 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Thunder53c85.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.271,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae9a…7ceabacked Thunder53c82.25$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.757847.4%37 W · 41 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae35…5dd3backed Nets67c79.44$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5313837%51 W · 87 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Nets49c77.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.11,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…0076backed Nets46c76.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Thunder53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.476654.5%36 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf0…b95dbacked Nets49c71.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510955%60 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Thunder76c67.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Nets50c64.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4814050.7%71 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eb7…d529backed Nets47c50.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8329351.9%152 W · 141 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Nets50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253737.8%14 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-27.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Thunder47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.52,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddf3…3c57backed Nets48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Nets47c48.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.031,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder42c47.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.793,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Nets48c46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.081,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Nets45c42.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1310623.6%25 W · 81 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb03…ddcebacked Thunder51c42.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.73268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80cf…0ec7backed Nets50c42.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.183141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e20…ac93backed Thunder57c42.11$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.115158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Nets48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2043647.9%209 W · 227 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Nets48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.290357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…569fbacked Thunder50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209745.4%44 W · 53 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.