NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd5a31481e0589c95b9647d7a10b2757566a59607d611ca1a8d9545efb6f4a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Nets | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 56c | 3,883$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nets | 44c | 2,844$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,238.64 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899a…2a22backed Nets | 45c | 2,754$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 42c | 2,266$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Thunder | 56c | 2,185$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.29 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Thunder | 53c | 1,245$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.24 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder | 59c | 1,173$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Thunder | 74c | 674.75$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.75 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Thunder | 51c | 489.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.1 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 56c | 461.77$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.33 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Thunder | 59c | 422.74$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Nets | 49c | 422.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.22 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nets | 45c | 321.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Nets | 48c | 314.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Thunder | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Thunder | 70c | 284.2$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Nets | 73c | 250$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.9 | 277 | 47.7%132 W · 145 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Thunder | 68c | 243.63$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Thunder | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Nets | 35c | 183.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nets | 26c | 182.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Thunder | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Thunder | 50c | 169.32$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Nets | 42c | 160.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets | 52c | 157.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Nets | 45c | 153.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Thunder | 11c | 153.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.29 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Thunder | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 558 | 46.8%261 W · 297 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Nets | 50c | 118.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…96f0backed Nets | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Thunder | 57c | 95.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Nets | 54c | 81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked Nets | 42c | 59.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Thunder | 58c | 55.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Thunder | 42c | 46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 44c | 44.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Nets | 42c | 38.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nets | 46c | 32.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Nets | 45c | 32.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Nets | 41c | 31.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Nets | 44c | 30.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Thunder | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf6…b89abacked Thunder | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Thunder | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 232 | 49.6%115 W · 117 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder | 46c | 24.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Nets | 50c | 24.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Thunder | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 163 | 69.9%114 W · 49 L | +18.6wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Thunder | 59c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.