NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d2bec8f921b68eb735f0086ca19b16af7b2c9d349cc171851ac522587c42cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 54c | 20,542$11,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,092.53 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 9,657$4,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,216.07 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 44c | 5,950$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,342.22 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Under | 45c | 3,206$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.17 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Under | 47c | 2,660$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.57 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 46c | 2,105$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.99 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 924.9$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.02 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 57c | 765$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.84 | 513 | 54.2%278 W · 235 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 14c | 638$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 563.58$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 53c | 385.07$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.94 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 363.84$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.21 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 46c | 308.47$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.68 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 282.18$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.54 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Over | 36c | 265.28$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 47c | 219.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.75 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 55c | 212$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Under | 77c | 211.72$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 74c | 211.65$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.97 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 55c | 170$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 60c | 128.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.1 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Under | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | +29.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…d308backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d031backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 99.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 56c | 97.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 53.4%285 W · 249 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 69c | 90.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 880 | 57.5%506 W · 374 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 86.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.76 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 53c | 85.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 81.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…0a06backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 142 | 38%54 W · 88 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 78.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 72.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…111bbacked Under | 44c | 71.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 61c | 69.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Under | 43c | 57.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 145 | 33.1%48 W · 97 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc208…e74fbacked Over | 54c | 54.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…fc12backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Over | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e31…5e8ebacked Under | 44c | 44.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…3ab9backed Over | 55c | 36.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed Under | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4b74backed Under | 52c | 28.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…5945backed Under | 47c | 27.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Under | 52c | 24.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 390 | 47.7%186 W · 204 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 51c | 23.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 57c | 19.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Under | 70c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Cason Wallace: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Nets vs. ThunderThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-18.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.