MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6d720419275db28d1ff371742a042c728619bbd00d562e5206caab9d8d3341
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca0…9b86backed Seattle Mariners | 25c | 9,585$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,184.53 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 9,449$7,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,034.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 9,331$5,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,791.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 8,116$3,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,024.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 4,573$2,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,648.19 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 4,420$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.05 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 2,059$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.58 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 1,891$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.25 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…1deebacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 967.9$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.9 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +5.7wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b94…b660backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 649.48$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 362.77$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.17 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 327$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.7 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 296.59$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.68 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 263$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…2874backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Seattle Mariners | 78c | 140.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 132.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Boston Red Sox | 41c | 131.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 127$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed Seattle Mariners | 65c | 124$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 111.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Boston Red Sox | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Boston Red Sox | 20c | 84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 74.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 68.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 57.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 39.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 39.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db0…5b69backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 30.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 21.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Boston Red Sox | 69c | 19.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 59c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 17.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.