TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,491
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,491 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaca0…9b86backed Seattle Mariners25c9,585$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,184.537934.2%27 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox74c9,449$7,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,034.4810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox62c9,331$5,791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,791.0511,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners38c8,116$3,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,024.748,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox58c4,573$2,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.194,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Seattle Mariners43c4,420$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.051,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Boston Red Sox62c2,059$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.5891252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Seattle Mariners26c1,891$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.252,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Seattle Mariners31c967.9$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.91485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.7wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+100.5%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b94…b660backed Boston Red Sox66c757.58$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners34c649.48$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.666,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Boston Red Sox64c362.77$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.175,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Boston Red Sox66c327$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.792054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Boston Red Sox66c296.59$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.682,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ec…3b76backed Seattle Mariners36c277.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.7810750.5%54 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox62c263$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.698,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda6f…2874backed Seattle Mariners39c256.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.41580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+80.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0009…5497backed Seattle Mariners78c140.26$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8629549.8%147 W · 148 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners41c132.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Boston Red Sox41c131.55$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.977353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Boston Red Sox62c127$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7499744.1%440 W · 557 L-38.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ad…a700backed Seattle Mariners65c124$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.42572%18 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+35.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Seattle Mariners35c111.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.579543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2b…3489backed Boston Red Sox26c108$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0829242.5%124 W · 168 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Seattle Mariners31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick43cpaid+100.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners35c89.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.492,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Boston Red Sox20c84$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.581,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners39c74.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.411,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Boston Red Sox58c68.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5320944%92 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners46c57.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.426,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed Seattle Mariners39c51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1112346.3%57 W · 66 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Seattle Mariners36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3281651.8%423 W · 393 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Boston Red Sox62c49.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.992,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox58c44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.526,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd5b…3b06backed Seattle Mariners39c44$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.848556.5%48 W · 37 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners42c39.81$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.255,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked Boston Red Sox62c39.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4711951.3%61 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db0…5b69backed Seattle Mariners38c39.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.473834.2%13 W · 25 L-5.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-38%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox65c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.752,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Boston Red Sox64c30.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.221,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.534843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Boston Red Sox64c21.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9285949.1%422 W · 437 L-3.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…5273backed Boston Red Sox69c19.81$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6753644.6%239 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox59c19.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.482,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Boston Red Sox68c17.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.882,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Boston Red Sox65c15.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.