Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcff629845036a531789b866792b36d3797045b931aa8035137257b51641b8ac6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 1,464$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 589.95$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 51c | 584.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 461.91$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.96 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 416.86$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.23 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 57c | 316.04$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 59c | 310.14$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.32 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 283.67$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 43c | 265.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 53c | 226.07$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.29 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 37c | 166.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 160$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 156.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 153.67$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 40c | 132.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 132$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 54c | 129$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 57c | 120.88$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 38c | 115.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 39c | 114.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 40c | 107.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.55 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 48c | 104.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…5721backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 59c | 99.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 89.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 45c | 89.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 42c | 89.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 175 | 38.9%68 W · 107 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 88.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 51c | 85.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 84.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 80.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 77.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 40c | 75.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 73c | 65.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 632 | 47.3%299 W · 333 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 63c | 59.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 57.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 32c | 57.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 54.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed Yes | 41c | 53.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 52c | 49.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 49.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 46.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 68c | 41.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 38.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 38c | 37.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 37.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 36.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 51c | 33.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 32.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 29.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 28.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 54c | 28.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 49c | 27.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 41c | 27.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 64c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 24.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d01…ee95backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 27.5%42 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.