Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf03522e98f31bb95c64dccb0a68b5048d6e92f88eb94fd2ba3b702fc8b2f94de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 716.38$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.44 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 420.06$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.23 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 370.4$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.24 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 72c | 364.68$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 58c | 344.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked No | 42c | 322.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 48c | 321.98$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 266.69$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.73 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 249.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.33 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 240.35$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 53c | 232.22$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 59c | 226.68$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 21c | 219.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 41c | 200.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.12 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 188.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 45c | 166.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 40c | 150.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.92 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 58c | 137$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 48c | 135.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 51c | 122.96$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 121.27$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.19 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 121$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 118.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 36c | 113.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 112.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 46c | 111$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 38c | 106.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 41c | 105.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943f…d29dbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,335 | 50.9%680 W · 655 L | -35.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,274 | 52.5%669 W · 605 L | -17.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…a075backed No | 53c | 94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 60c | 85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 61cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 37c | 81.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 78c | 79.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 74.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 51c | 71.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 67.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 67.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 45c | 67.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 44c | 64.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 59.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 53c | 57.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 53.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 53.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 30c | 52.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 52.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 51.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 50.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 49.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 48.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 67c | 47.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 47.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 46.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 855 | 35.7%305 W · 550 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…eaa7backed Yes | 39c | 43.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 42.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 27c | 42.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 29c | 42.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 29c | 40.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 37.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 41c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 47c | 34.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…6f04backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 52c | 33.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 985 | 13.8%136 W · 849 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 354 | 21.5%76 W · 278 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 32.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 30.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 72.8%174 W · 65 L | +27.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes | 40c | 24.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d5…01e8backed Yes | 54c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 57c | 23.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5191…0c35backed Yes | 80c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…c191backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 244 | 45.1%110 W · 134 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.