MLB · resolved market
Phillies vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd008db0747a0fae6c8e4134c7afb7c6677b2a9762f81d8573fa1c4ddc62f4e2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philliesof Phillies, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51dd…0020backed Phillies | 50c | 41,273$20,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,808.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 50c | 19,454$9,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,786.8 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 45c | 17,445$7,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,824.25 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Cubs | 37c | 3,629$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Cubs | 46c | 2,100$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.42 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 44c | 1,327$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Cubs | 57c | 1,100$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cubs | 52c | 1,070$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.4 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Cubs | 62c | 1,041$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.42 | 161 | 51.6%83 W · 78 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Phillies | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cubs | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cubs | 50c | 953$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.86 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cubs | 62c | 938.66$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.74 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…f614backed Phillies | 54c | 788.77$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cubs | 45c | 788.06$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.82 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Cubs | 60c | 700$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Phillies | 46c | 515.48$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.36 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Phillies | 45c | 460.59$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.12 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Phillies | 49c | 306$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.06 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Phillies | 50c | 300.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Phillies | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Phillies | 46c | 295.04$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Phillies | 46c | 260$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cubs | 41c | 225$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cubs | 57c | 200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Phillies | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Phillies | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Phillies | 75c | 172.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Cubs | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Cubs | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Phillies | 48c | 83.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Cubs | 52c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Phillies | 46c | 49.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Cubs | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Cubs | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Cubs | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 53c | 41.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Cubs | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Phillies | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Cubs | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Phillies | 46c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ca…5b45backed Cubs | 54c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Cubs | 52c | 30.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Phillies | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Phillies | 49c | 22.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 57c | 18.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.