TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
LOSof Fluxo W7M, LOS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$377,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$411,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,104 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 438 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf201…527ebacked Fluxo W7M35c27,921$9,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,825.821,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Fluxo W7M28c18,137$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,084.999848%47 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed LOS60c15,000$8,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,003.6591854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f2…2a5dbacked LOS37c12,223$4,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,662.841650%8 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Fluxo W7M42c11,500$4,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,849.559750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a4c…1f30backed LOS72c11,200$8,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,13616356.4%92 W · 71 L+10.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Fluxo W7M27c10,816$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,946.299621.9%21 W · 75 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f03…b1bebacked LOS72c10,000$7,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800.971,13252.5%594 W · 538 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LOS62c9,112$5,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,432.642,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed LOS69c8,949$6,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.4964155.7%357 W · 284 L+27.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Fluxo W7M28c6,742$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.151,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed LOS58c5,990$3,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,502.865959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Fluxo W7M40c5,680$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.1532755.7%182 W · 145 L+17.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Fluxo W7M8c5,095$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.711,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked LOS71c5,000$3,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.991,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LOS80c4,554$3,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$916.761,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8261…a3f1backed LOS66c4,548$2,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.9218467.9%125 W · 59 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Fluxo W7M30c4,256$1,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,256.8713933.8%47 W · 92 L-14.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked Fluxo W7M40c4,117$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.3967760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6918…782bbacked LOS71c4,011$2,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.551,50154.5%818 W · 683 L+34.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked LOS75c3,962$2,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.51,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7553…65cabacked Fluxo W7M40c3,861$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.467250.9%342 W · 330 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked LOS65c3,832$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.31,15842.6%493 W · 665 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x790e…b82dbacked Fluxo W7M28c3,640$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.853250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceed…f8eebacked Fluxo W7M27c3,551$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.718934.8%31 W · 58 L-10.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x82db…26b7backed LOS63c3,130$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,162.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed LOS71c3,110$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.9414247.2%67 W · 75 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked LOS61c3,091$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.141,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Fluxo W7M31c3,010$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.924650%123 W · 123 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked LOS59c2,968$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.9745937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d78…29a5backed LOS75c2,963$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.258651.2%44 W · 42 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Fluxo W7M24c2,935$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.9320826.9%56 W · 152 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed LOS70c2,857$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854.781,20743.5%525 W · 682 L-14.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Fluxo W7M30c2,792$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.973,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Fluxo W7M29c2,681$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.4918336.6%67 W · 116 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…d698backed Fluxo W7M38c2,651$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-26.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Fluxo W7M28c2,650$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7421,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed Fluxo W7M47c2,560$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.8428042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed LOS72c2,451$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.1544451.8%230 W · 214 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed LOS71c2,378$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.51,05746.1%487 W · 570 L-11.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f8…891cbacked Fluxo W7M29c2,345$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.052254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd525…1815backed Fluxo W7M40c2,306$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.413632.4%44 W · 92 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-26.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaea5…6163backed LOS75c2,233$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.1645366%299 W · 154 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked LOS58c2,170$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.2257246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Fluxo W7M65c2,099$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.141,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed LOS72c2,083$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.332,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Fluxo W7M29c2,034$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,00747.9%482 W · 525 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb1…96e1backed Fluxo W7M31c2,029$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.84633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9c…4da5backed LOS62c2,006$1,244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.521656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Fluxo W7M1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201543.9%6 W · 148 L-0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-87%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Fluxo W7M1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205920%0 W · 592 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed Fluxo W7M24c2,000$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.689943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96f1…b6d8backed Fluxo W7M41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.9938659.8%231 W · 155 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed Fluxo W7M32c1,930$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61864247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Fluxo W7M39c1,800$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021,43557.4%824 W · 611 L+36.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc542…beffbacked Fluxo W7M18c1,622$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.666563.1%41 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Fluxo W7M38c1,508$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.5447838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x40ce…bf90backed LOS67c1,500$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4951,15156%644 W · 507 L+25.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82af…f7d1backed Fluxo W7M30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Fluxo W7M34c1,457$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.921,31037.3%489 W · 821 L-86.3wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x38fe…a923backed Fluxo W7M30c1,395$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.721040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff93…1239backed Fluxo W7M30c1,394$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.262040%8 W · 12 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed LOS68c1,325$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43046841.7%195 W · 273 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6436…da96backed Fluxo W7M14c1,316$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.411854.2%64 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed LOS72c1,300$936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3641,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Fluxo W7M28c1,268$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.694444.4%419 W · 525 L-31.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdca…66ebbacked LOS58c1,200$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.0896057.4%551 W · 409 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Fluxo W7M40c1,200$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4761,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Fluxo W7M40c1,181$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.4390537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf64f…9f48backed Fluxo W7M37c1,175$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.996230.6%19 W · 43 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ac…2a18backed Fluxo W7M29c1,160$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2713130.5%40 W · 91 L-13.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed LOS69c1,117$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.1428859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1926…83ccbacked LOS58c1,060$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.033551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked LOS57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43023252.6%122 W · 110 L+20.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+21.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Fluxo W7M41c1,000$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.2582953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc38…d22bbacked LOS61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc0…6139backed Fluxo W7M33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33035346.7%165 W · 188 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed Fluxo W7M10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10094237.3%351 W · 591 L+51.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fluxo W7M13c994.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.941,23937.3%462 W · 777 L-39.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LOS70c984.5$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.0695041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked Fluxo W7M25c943.3$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.8325332%81 W · 172 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed LOS69c899.58$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1476142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Fluxo W7M31c886$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.6632542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490a…1d4bbacked Fluxo W7M43c867.32$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.9510535.2%37 W · 68 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7566…a420backed LOS72c865.79$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Fluxo W7M29c862.07$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25025433.5%85 W · 169 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Fluxo W7M42c837.43$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.162,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed LOS71c820.56$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.181,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed LOS62c810.16$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.1628250%141 W · 141 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Fluxo W7M40c782.04$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.8211145%50 W · 61 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed5…981dbacked LOS58c771.82$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.8244245.9%203 W · 239 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked LOS64c756.21$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.621,92242.2%811 W · 1,111 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fd1…17ccbacked Fluxo W7M5c750$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060124.1%145 W · 456 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked LOS66c747.08$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.661,89937.1%705 W · 1,194 L-113.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Fluxo W7M30c731.31$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3949847.2%235 W · 263 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked LOS67c723.76$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.231,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked LOS57c721.75$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.7166845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fluxo W7M24c707.56$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.162,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd83…7d7cbacked LOS72c705.92$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6621559.5%128 W · 87 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe592…74adbacked Fluxo W7M40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2806443.8%28 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.