NBA · resolved market

Spread: Raptors (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd14049488a1e57f92c40d16b4d5f6dee88fa57f1e03051850106a303625c31a7

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Raptorsof Raptors, Bulls
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $91,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,998 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Raptors	45c	18,517$8,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,117.19	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	-5.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Raptors	49c	11,483$5,627 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,856.21	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls	51c	11,403$5,797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,796.93	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bulls	54c	8,206$4,465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,465.31	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bulls	55c	7,426$4,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,047.32	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Bulls	59c	7,108$4,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,194	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…5c69backed Bulls	58c	6,567$3,795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,794.52	363	59.8%217 W · 146 L	+23.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Bulls	56c	5,842$3,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,300	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-4.1wins	-0.14per pick	59cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Raptors	46c	4,348$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,347.83	244	50%122 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Raptors	43c	3,049$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,749.36	163	35.6%58 W · 105 L	-12.2wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Bulls	54c	3,000$1,620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,619.98	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3fcd…355abacked Raptors	43c	1,994$857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,136.61	75	36%27 W · 48 L	-9.9wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Raptors	43c	1,827$785 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,042.74	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x899a…2a22backed Bulls	56c	1,786$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	172	41.9%72 W · 100 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bd3…394cbacked Raptors	46c	1,746$803 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$942.65	100	48%48 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Raptors	46c	1,713$788 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$924.95	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Raptors	41c	1,500$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$880	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Bulls	31c	1,387$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.49	448	21.4%96 W · 352 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Raptors	65c	1,300$840 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.4	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Bulls	59c	1,000$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Raptors	46c	924.33$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$499.14	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Bulls	56c	895.77$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls	58c	822.79$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.22	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bd4…35b5backed Bulls	5c	699.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Raptors	42c	600$252 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348	807	44.1%356 W · 451 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Raptors	44c	557.36$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.39	205	36.6%75 W · 130 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Raptors	53c	472.7$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222.59	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Raptors	46c	434.78$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.78	304	46.7%142 W · 162 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f89…8ed0backed Bulls	55c	363.64$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	42%21 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Bulls	60c	335.35$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Bulls	53c	330.19$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.19	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Bulls	56c	315.4$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.9	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Bulls	54c	298.82$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.36	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed Raptors	42c	297.62$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.62	30	50%15 W · 15 L	+2.7wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Raptors	46c	297.01$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.39	511	46.6%238 W · 273 L	-13.7wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Bulls	59c	254.24$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	134	64.2%86 W · 48 L	+8.0wins	+0.06per pick	58cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Bulls	50c	244.3$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.29	489	56.4%276 W · 213 L	+31.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Bulls	56c	219.36$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.49	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Bulls	49c	204$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.96	182	40.7%74 W · 108 L	-8.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors	44c	185.54$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.4	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Bulls	59c	182.08$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Bulls	55c	181.82$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fd…1852backed Bulls	54c	181.59$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.86	14	50%7 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99df…b59abacked Bulls	55c	170$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.5	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Bulls	59c	169.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	312	49.4%154 W · 158 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ff…a806backed Raptors	46c	163.04$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.04	160	30.6%49 W · 111 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Raptors	42c	145.5$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.39	219	37%81 W · 138 L	-15.9wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	-11%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Raptors	45c	138$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.9	196	47.4%93 W · 103 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Raptors	44c	123.49$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.99	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Bulls	59c	120$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.8	587	54.7%321 W · 266 L	-10.9wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Raptors	44c	107.87$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.41	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Bulls	59c	105.88$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.47	183	45.9%84 W · 99 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x61f6…7b83backed Bulls	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	114	20.2%23 W · 91 L	-6.8wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Bulls	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	263	39.5%104 W · 159 L	-13.8wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ca4…2a96backed Bulls	56c	100$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	308	36%111 W · 197 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Raptors	44c	95.98$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.23	506	51.2%259 W · 247 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Raptors	43c	92.85$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.33	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Bulls	28c	83.89$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.49	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bulls	48c	77.73$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.49	3,995	48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L	+101.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Bulls	54c	69.74$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.99	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Raptors	42c	69.68$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.41	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Bulls	59c	62.88$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.1	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls	57c	57.05$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Bulls	55c	57$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Bulls	57c	56$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d90…cf08backed Bulls	55c	54.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	199	40.7%81 W · 118 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4785…921ebacked Raptors	45c	53.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.69	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Bulls	53c	52$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.37	243	30.5%74 W · 169 L	-15.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Bulls	47c	40.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Bulls	51c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Bulls	55c	37.95$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	204	48.5%99 W · 105 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Bulls	30c	37.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	306	16.7%51 W · 255 L	-36.5wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked Raptors	44c	34.09$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.09	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cd…15aebacked Raptors	45c	34$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.7	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.15per pick	52cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e2f…1adfbacked Bulls	44c	31.82$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	-4.3wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Bulls	57c	30.53$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	296	45.6%135 W · 161 L	-12.3wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x88ee…13d8backed Raptors	53c	30.19$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.19	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Bulls	44c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Raptors	42c	27.94$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.21	397	56.7%225 W · 172 L	+21.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86fb…5976backed Bulls	63c	24.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.45	94	58.5%55 W · 39 L	+6.0wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Raptors	72c	22.22$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.22	619	57.5%356 W · 263 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Bulls	55c	22.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	509	48.5%247 W · 262 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Bulls	48c	21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	197	50.3%99 W · 98 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Raptors (-9.5)this page
Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 5.5No won
Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 20.5No won
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
Bulls vs. RaptorsRaptors won
Bulls vs. Raptors: 1H MoneylineRaptors won
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5Over won
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5Over won
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5Over won
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5Over won
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 227.5Over won
Collin Murray-Boyles: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
RJ Barrett: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Scottie Barnes: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
Spread: Raptors (-7.5)Raptors won
Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Raptors won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Raptors (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event