TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Bulls vs. Raptors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Raptorsof Bulls, Raptors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,692,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,829,280

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,692,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 978 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bd7…373ebacked Bulls28c274,103$75,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75,505.639350.5%47 W · 46 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bulls24c192,601$47,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,076.487144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07b8…8e25backed Raptors72c180,000$130,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,749.9923257.8%134 W · 98 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Raptors76c137,458$104,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,369.812,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Raptors73c66,832$48,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,044.6419560%117 W · 78 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5d…c55fbacked Bulls26c60,200$15,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,652250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…bcccbacked Raptors74c60,200$44,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,652250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Bulls27c50,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,499.9948343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Bulls4c45,213$1,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,917.91,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Bulls27c35,179$9,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,498.321,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Raptors73c32,391$23,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,645.94,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Bulls26c30,000$7,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,899.9627424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e1…f855backed Bulls27c28,718$7,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,625.1128742.9%123 W · 164 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Bulls0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…b212backed Bulls25c24,815$6,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,203.661844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Raptors72c24,159$17,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,647.39,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Raptors73c22,767$16,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,154.564,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Raptors75c20,966$15,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,321.12,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Bulls28c20,508$5,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,742.1314243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9e…a250backed Raptors72c20,504$14,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,741.1115247.4%72 W · 80 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Raptors73c20,442$14,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,519.4717356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Bulls27c20,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.9331445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Bulls1c18,012$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.961,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cb4…c1d1backed Bulls28c17,400$4,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,86710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…67efbacked Bulls27c15,010$4,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,052.715841.1%65 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc8…cca9backed Raptors74c15,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,90020551.2%105 W · 100 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Raptors73c15,000$10,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,049.9919751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Raptors73c14,971$10,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,980.173,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba69…8e9dbacked Raptors72c14,438$10,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,042.631573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Raptors72c13,500$9,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,78037557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5330…0bfabacked Bulls25c10,822$2,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,705.5913142.7%56 W · 75 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Raptors72c10,818$7,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.1738251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Bulls26c10,150$2,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,608.51,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed Raptors73c10,010$7,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.9436950.1%185 W · 184 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Bulls7c8,632$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.328,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Raptors75c8,020$5,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.393759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa051…54ebbacked Bulls25c8,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00015435.7%55 W · 99 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Raptors73c7,989$5,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.4220947.8%100 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb22a…8e6cbacked Raptors75c7,789$5,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,947.273751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bulls28c7,500$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Bulls22c6,990$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.5880737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Raptors76c6,704$5,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.254,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Raptors75c6,677$5,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,648.331,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Bulls0c6,500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.68820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35bd…1ecfbacked Bulls25c6,500$1,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,624.9814945.6%68 W · 81 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Bulls8c6,449$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.9223747.7%113 W · 124 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Bulls2c5,940$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.061,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x769c…5c05backed Raptors74c5,794$4,288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,506.445354.7%29 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Bulls27c5,591$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50046145.6%210 W · 251 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Raptors78c5,054$3,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,116.635,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9c…a59abacked Bulls26c5,000$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-79.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Raptors73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,35021951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf5…6440backed Bulls25c5,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.9946928.4%133 W · 336 L+2.3wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Raptors75c4,913$3,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.691,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78be…9218backed Bulls3c4,877$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Raptors74c4,856$3,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.6572450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cd9…3dabbacked Bulls23c4,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa398…80afbacked Bulls9c4,453$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.532330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-42.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3382…dcfbbacked Bulls23c4,400$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcaff…f689backed Raptors74c4,110$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.62231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa31…924fbacked Bulls26c4,109$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.342070%14 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+22.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc73b…943abacked Bulls23c4,100$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Raptors77c4,084$3,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.7548956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Raptors75c4,008$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.0719653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a9c…c9aebacked Raptors75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick58cpaid-43.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x43ab…b6ffbacked Raptors73c4,000$2,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0808555.3%47 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16cf…7d64backed Bulls25c4,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002045%9 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9d…6b37backed Raptors75c4,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.0wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-54.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34f9…9c19backed Bulls26c4,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0401323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Raptors73c3,915$2,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.911,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5ed…d25fbacked Raptors75c3,867$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.672680.8%21 W · 5 L+6.2wins+0.24per pick57cpaid+59.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Raptors72c3,746$2,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,048.781,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Bulls26c3,731$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Bulls27c3,704$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00035438.1%135 W · 219 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a48…db20backed Bulls6c3,643$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96c…0fb2backed Raptors77c3,634$2,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.191241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf606…440abacked Raptors72c3,611$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,011.118754%47 W · 40 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Bulls25c3,600$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90071547.7%341 W · 374 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x953c…1aacbacked Bulls1c3,476$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.552339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2313…220abacked Bulls36c3,400$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,22440%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c28…fb64backed Raptors64c3,400$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Bulls27c3,202$865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.6343348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7837…40f1backed Raptors73c3,173$2,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.63060%18 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Raptors76c3,058$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.052,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdda6…925abacked Bulls10c3,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3107135.2%25 W · 46 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Raptors75c2,783$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.2955346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f63…a78dbacked Bulls28c2,780$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.392356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+54.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…4a65backed Bulls10c2,752$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.881346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Raptors73c2,740$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.7390957.6%524 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ee…bf85backed Bulls10c2,739$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.1420031%62 W · 138 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+52.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Raptors73c2,575$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.3447856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Bulls26c2,513$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.421,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2020…7e22backed Bulls11c2,375$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Raptors75c2,306$1,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.0425452.8%134 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ae…4d2cbacked Bulls11c2,284$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Raptors77c2,269$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.1289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Bulls9c2,220$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8567911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bulls26c2,212$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.172,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Bulls26c2,203$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.843,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Bulls25c2,172$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.4661336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.