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Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes14c2,172$304 inLost-$304.23818.4%7 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes10c1,438$141 inLost-$141.097518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef95…88c0backed Yes15c834.71$126 inLost-$125.991233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes15c662.5$99 inLost-$99.3811840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes13c638.73$86 inLost-$861233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c559.03$26 inLost-$26.33704.3%3 W · 67 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes10c423.29$44 inLost-$43.635341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes16c299.65$48 inLost-$48.042416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes15c280$42 inLost-$425337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes8c252.09$20 inLost-$20.1730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes14c209.99$30 inLost-$30.111645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes12c200$24 inLost-$241030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c199.99$158 inWon+$4226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes11c166.39$18 inLost-$18.2941736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes15c150$23 inLost-$236437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes14c139.99$20 inLost-$19.68639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes12c116.42$14 inLost-$13.9711839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes17c110.24$18 inLost-$18.249341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes13c106.89$14 inLost-$13.985655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes10c104.15$10 inLost-$10.426136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes13c95.06$12 inLost-$12.365327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e68…b800backed Yes15c70$11 inLost-$10.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes42c50$21 inLost-$2112225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No80c50$40 inWon+$107247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No80c21.25$17 inWon+$4.256654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No76c14.53$11 inWon+$3.426357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No73c13.82$10 inWon+$3.682684.6%22 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.