MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e2f96ff987992cb9e54eb98c3f9a22a1c1013045170c2206c4fafabcd067a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 18,428$9,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,994.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 44c | 10,624$4,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,915 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 48c | 4,643$2,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,414.22 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 1,794$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 1,095$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.51 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 57c | 1,052$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.89 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 1,000$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.62 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.95 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 49c | 928$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.28 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 910.28$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.69 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…c873backed Under | 62c | 806.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 49c | 406.47$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.3 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 44c | 386.36$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 43c | 307.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Under | 74c | 239.41$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Under | 43c | 231.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.37 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Under | 49c | 230.94$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 43c | 222.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Under | 44c | 208$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 49c | 172$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.72 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 49c | 153.1$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.13 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 49c | 151.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…0306backed Over | 28c | 151.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 40c | 148.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 40c | 112$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 56c | 103.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 49c | 103.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 50c | 102.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.37 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 49c | 101.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.76 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x010a…7084backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 49c | 94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 66c | 92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 73c | 78.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Under | 49c | 72.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Under | 50c | 66.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 46c | 64.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 50.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Over | 49c | 50.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Under | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 49c | 46.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 50c | 43.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…9634backed Over | 43c | 40.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 38c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…eae9backed Under | 54c | 36.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…cb6abacked Over | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 74c | 34.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…a0bdbacked Under | 48c | 27.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 51c | 21.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…9c36backed Under | 62c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 58c | 18.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…1dcdbacked Under | 59c | 17.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.