MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd80f73314ec1f3a1e0a0ddf04f9e512e0e408ae36bc17ff528c261c6593bb6ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,505$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.65 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed No | 46c | 875.77$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 48c | 753.98$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.16 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 53c | 424.69$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 44c | 321.59$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Yes | 58c | 258.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 52c | 245.36$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…3691backed No | 45c | 203.29$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 44c | 171.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed No | 45c | 164.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 43c | 163$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 42c | 158$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…0d91backed No | 44c | 158$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked No | 42c | 147.31$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3652…2c8bbacked Yes | 56c | 139.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 56c | 126.21$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 42c | 117$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 55c | 98.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 52c | 78.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 53c | 54.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84e…b520backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.