TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,502
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,502 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes56c1,505$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.652,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed No46c875.77$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40025751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed No48c753.98$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.1626762.2%166 W · 101 L+43.9wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes53c424.69$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.728,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f15…bdb3backed No44c321.59$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.5377647.4%368 W · 408 L+1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682a…c87dbacked Yes58c258.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.83850%19 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes52c245.36$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.7748653.7%261 W · 225 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f9…3691backed No45c203.29$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.484944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked Yes57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8641152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No44c171.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.12,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf37c…3c74backed No45c164.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745040%20 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No43c163$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.091,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No42c158$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3661352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd726…0d91backed No44c158$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked No42c147.31$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8790446.9%424 W · 480 L+13.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3652…2c8bbacked Yes56c139.29$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.292166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+31.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes56c126.21$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8234044.4%151 W · 189 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed No42c117$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.141,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed No44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.51,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Yes55c98.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4626845.9%123 W · 145 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes52c78.46$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.661,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No53c54.75$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1297944.4%435 W · 544 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe84e…b520backed No45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205442.6%23 W · 31 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Yes53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.631,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5777…f1a7backed Yes55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.257343.8%32 W · 41 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.