Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3aa2e4ab0561fd427d09423bbc9529dbad332f64577632de960173b22865c58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 1,913$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 78c | 1,092$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.52 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 916.99$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.92 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 390$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.9 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 247.19$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 207.56$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.91 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 206.23$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 70c | 205$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 203$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.92 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 163.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 40c | 152.06$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.59 | 464 | 56.5%262 W · 202 L | +54.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 28c | 130.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.26 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 124.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 122.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 121$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 120.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 67c | 120.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 461 | 62.3%287 W · 174 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 99.21$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 68c | 86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 36c | 85.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +12.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 84.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 64c | 83.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 70.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 27c | 70.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 71c | 70.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.82 | 136 | 33.8%46 W · 90 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 66.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 39c | 52.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 50.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 48.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 45.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 43.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4f…4926backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.32per pick | 53cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 32.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 50c | 31.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 30.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 35c | 30.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 480 | 39.8%191 W · 289 L | +31.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1d…2717backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1,004 | 70.9%712 W · 292 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 26.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,128 | 55.4%625 W · 503 L | -30.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 71c | 25.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 75c | 23.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 59c | 20.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 134 | 67.9%91 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 69c | 17.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 291 | 67.7%197 W · 94 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.