TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rune Eatersof Aurora, Rune Eaters
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,208
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,194

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,208 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f74…fa8bbacked Aurora0c30,600$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.61471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+17.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Rune Eaters36c6,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8406374.6%47 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+26.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Aurora66c3,713$2,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.9929243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora64c3,516$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.8613960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Rune Eaters33c3,283$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.7936248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed Rune Eaters36c2,897$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,854.083953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeef6…cd4cbacked Rune Eaters34c2,539$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.744454.5%24 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora65c2,091$1,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,358.8328159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57f…1746backed Aurora64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2801258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed Aurora65c1,540$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.87263.9%46 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora65c1,538$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora67c1,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00553652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Rune Eaters35c1,480$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.829143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23b…7c42backed Rune Eaters35c1,451$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.096653%35 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed Aurora66c1,200$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79214943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Rune Eaters35c999.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.9919742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Rune Eaters32c817.22$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.718146.9%38 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2776…4ecbbacked Aurora64c782$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.487262.5%45 W · 27 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7d…8895backed Aurora65c769.23$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50028252.5%148 W · 134 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Rune Eaters33c705$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.3550353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Aurora65c688.51$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.5326550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Rune Eaters27c659.14$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.141,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0b…2debbacked Aurora65c623.08$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40519547.7%93 W · 102 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e6…ad16backed Aurora65c615.38$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Rune Eaters33c595$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.6546240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3995…47edbacked Aurora67c591.58$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.55650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Aurora76c550$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4189744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Aurora64c512$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.6812155.4%67 W · 54 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+134.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed Aurora66c500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3308957.3%51 W · 38 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Rune Eaters30c498$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.6835850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc128…7834backed Aurora68c449.88$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.921752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0b…4e72backed Aurora65c344.62$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2242065%13 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd83…d102backed Aurora66c319.17$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.651758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Rune Eaters35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19533445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Rune Eaters34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1988842%37 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Rune Eaters33c275.47$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5741050.2%206 W · 204 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Rune Eaters33c262.37$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7753634%182 W · 354 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d35…b406backed Aurora66c258$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.28757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5537…f9c8backed Aurora65c250$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.521353.5%114 W · 99 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15d1…ccfebacked Aurora68c249.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.9954659.7%326 W · 220 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Aurora65c248.27$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.979052.2%47 W · 43 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Aurora66c216.45$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1947548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…0eccbacked Aurora73c210.41$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15317251.2%88 W · 84 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d59…bdf3backed Aurora66c203.45$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2867555%371 W · 304 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Rune Eaters33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13413941.7%58 W · 81 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb5…2d03backed Aurora75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501020%2 W · 8 L-3.9wins-0.39per pick59cpaid-67.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Rune Eaters38c169.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.041,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3540…3c49backed Aurora65c154.91$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.691241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Aurora65c154$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.141864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Aurora65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x461c…f74bbacked Rune Eaters35c142.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.864247.6%20 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x914b…e406backed Aurora55c106.2$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe99e…0084backed Aurora67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6787645.7%400 W · 476 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1720…747fbacked Aurora67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679751.5%50 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3296…c186backed Aurora66c84.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2616552.1%86 W · 79 L+7.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x631a…a80fbacked Aurora66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020542.9%88 W · 117 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00da…6afdbacked Aurora67c75.52$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ba…4212backed Aurora67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503336.4%12 W · 21 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-30.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb5b…62c7backed Aurora68c73.53$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507166.2%47 W · 24 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Rune Eaters34c60.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4026846.6%125 W · 143 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked Aurora66c60.61$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4054648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Rune Eaters35c56.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5612556.8%71 W · 54 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b39…8593backed Rune Eaters36c53.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.125360.4%32 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Rune Eaters35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.525047.6%119 W · 131 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Aurora65c46.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022453.1%119 W · 105 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Aurora65c46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.925266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa683…6692backed Aurora65c45.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.542254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Rune Eaters34c44.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7543860.5%265 W · 173 L+44.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Aurora65c43.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2819455.7%108 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67f6…1651backed Aurora48c41.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207742.9%33 W · 44 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c3…ed81backed Aurora65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x951f…b356backed Aurora65c38.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc40…4c26backed Aurora65c37.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.622552%13 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Aurora65c32.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9429352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b99…0080backed Aurora65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Aurora65c30.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.983748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1233…444abacked Aurora65c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.71936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f67…866ebacked Aurora65c30.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.74372.1%31 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed Rune Eaters34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.897142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37bd…ed2abacked Aurora65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.57763.6%49 W · 28 L+8.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc670…b781backed Aurora64c29.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8218247.8%87 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed Aurora66c26.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.461233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-43%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Aurora65c23.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522260.4%134 W · 88 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee06…3054backed Aurora67c22.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151428.6%4 W · 10 L-5.9wins-0.42per pick71cpaid-61.5%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x924d…ea43backed Aurora66c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f6f…1284backed Aurora65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137964.6%51 W · 28 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked Rune Eaters77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6844474.8%332 W · 112 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.