Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd442ab3f91f2b396d4a71ac7748a9f1850f542f056cacf9fc8757d1b80bed7ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Aurora, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f74…fa8bbacked Aurora | 0c | 30,600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c52…1a59backed Rune Eaters | 36c | 6,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840 | 63 | 74.6%47 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Aurora | 66c | 3,713$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.99 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd66…664fbacked Aurora | 64c | 3,516$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,265.86 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 3,283$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.79 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…57e0backed Rune Eaters | 36c | 2,897$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,854.08 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Rune Eaters | 34c | 2,539$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.74 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…b6efbacked Aurora | 65c | 2,091$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.83 | 281 | 59.8%168 W · 113 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…1746backed Aurora | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8a…5f49backed Aurora | 65c | 1,540$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.8 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Aurora | 65c | 1,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Aurora | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 1,480$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.8 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…7c42backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 1,451$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.09 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…af95backed Aurora | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.99 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Rune Eaters | 32c | 817.22$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.71 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Aurora | 64c | 782$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.48 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…8895backed Aurora | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 282 | 52.5%148 W · 134 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 705$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.35 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Aurora | 65c | 688.51$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.53 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Rune Eaters | 27c | 659.14$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.14 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0b…2debbacked Aurora | 65c | 623.08$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 195 | 47.7%93 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Aurora | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Rune Eaters | 33c | 595$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.65 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…47edbacked Aurora | 67c | 591.58$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…d731backed Aurora | 76c | 550$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Aurora | 64c | 512$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.68 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…bd17backed Aurora | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Rune Eaters | 30c | 498$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.68 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…7834backed Aurora | 68c | 449.88$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.92 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0b…4e72backed Aurora | 65c | 344.62$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed Aurora | 66c | 319.17$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Rune Eaters | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 275.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.57 | 410 | 50.2%206 W · 204 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 262.37$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…b406backed Aurora | 66c | 258$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Aurora | 65c | 250$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Aurora | 68c | 249.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Aurora | 65c | 248.27$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Aurora | 66c | 216.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.19 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Aurora | 73c | 210.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | -11.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Aurora | 66c | 203.45$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.28 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Rune Eaters | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…2d03backed Aurora | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rune Eaters | 38c | 169.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3540…3c49backed Aurora | 65c | 154.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…57bbbacked Aurora | 65c | 154$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 418 | 64.1%268 W · 150 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Aurora | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461c…f74bbacked Rune Eaters | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…e406backed Aurora | 55c | 106.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Aurora | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1720…747fbacked Aurora | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Aurora | 66c | 84.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x631a…a80fbacked Aurora | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00da…6afdbacked Aurora | 67c | 75.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98ba…4212backed Aurora | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Aurora | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Rune Eaters | 34c | 60.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Aurora | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 56.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…8593backed Rune Eaters | 36c | 53.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Rune Eaters | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Aurora | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Aurora | 65c | 46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa683…6692backed Aurora | 65c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 44.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Aurora | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Aurora | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…ed81backed Aurora | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…b356backed Aurora | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…4c26backed Aurora | 65c | 37.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Aurora | 65c | 32.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b99…0080backed Aurora | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Aurora | 65c | 30.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…444abacked Aurora | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Aurora | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Aurora | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Aurora | 64c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…8804backed Aurora | 66c | 26.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Aurora | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee06…3054backed Aurora | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.9wins | -0.42per pick | 71cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…ea43backed Aurora | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…1284backed Aurora | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Rune Eaters | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Esports World Cup SurvivalRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.