Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd519457584d289788f179347271b38bf93ec87579c34dca3a1521c04319407d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 540$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.69 | 1,235 | 59.7%737 W · 498 L | +35.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 525.67$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 401.57$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.52 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 60c | 323.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.23 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 293.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 280.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 4,665 | 26.6%1,242 W · 3,423 L | +65.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 255.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 55c | 185.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 631 | 21.9%138 W · 493 L | -33.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 173.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 1,801 | 50.4%907 W · 894 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 166.71$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 679 | 44.6%303 W · 376 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 163$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.56 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 14c | 147.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 524 | 50%262 W · 262 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…5bbbbacked No | 61c | 126.38$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 124.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 122.28$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,464 | 58.5%857 W · 607 L | +71.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 108$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 4,136 | 56.6%2,343 W · 1,793 L | +50.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 74c | 106.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 30c | 103.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 100.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.12 | 929 | 44.3%412 W · 517 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 301 | 67.4%203 W · 98 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 92.16$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 58c | 91.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 70c | 82.93$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 125 | 53.6%67 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 36c | 78.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 77.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 77.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 77.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 63c | 76.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 37c | 75.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 75.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 15c | 74.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1,876 | 18.6%348 W · 1,528 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 70.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 4,622 | 47.5%2,195 W · 2,427 L | -182.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 48c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 847 | 48.5%411 W · 436 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 59c | 68.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 468 | 62.6%293 W · 175 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 34c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 29c | 67.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 63.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 1,868 | 37.7%705 W · 1,163 L | +282.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 61.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 2,267 | 57.4%1,301 W · 966 L | +72.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 60.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 58c | 51.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 2,155 | 59.6%1,285 W · 870 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 62c | 51.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 317 | 82%260 W · 57 L | +32.0wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 41c | 48.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 48.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 72c | 46.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 43c | 46.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,154 | 62.2%1,339 W · 815 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 30c | 43.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed No | 54c | 43.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 55c | 40.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 34c | 37.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0f…633ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 36.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 35.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 314 | 48.4%152 W · 162 L | +30.3wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 32c | 34.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 33.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x046c…7eb3backed Yes | 34c | 29.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 29.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…dca3backed Yes | 40c | 25.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 57c | 21.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.