Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd540f77490c4d60144c0a0e69f286a97f7d1b0c556792928de030ae85525d82d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 567.29$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 45c | 535.13$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.85 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 518.76$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.85 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 37c | 510.68$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 36c | 436.44$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.07 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 409.74$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 357.54$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 47c | 351.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 340.22$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 47c | 307.64$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.69 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 294.4$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 291.18$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 289.27$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 61c | 288.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.71 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 281.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.05 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 255$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed Yes | 31c | 228.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 224.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 200.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 46c | 164.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 13c | 152.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 53c | 135.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 72c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 62c | 130.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 77c | 129.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 122.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 28c | 119.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 74c | 116.08$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 43c | 115.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 112$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed Yes | 38c | 104$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 95.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 42c | 95.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 73c | 91.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 56c | 91.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 91.08$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cb…c123backed Yes | 33c | 90.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 56c | 90.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 84.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 78.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 37c | 75.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 37c | 75.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 57c | 75.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed No | 75c | 73.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 51c | 72.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed No | 76c | 63.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 41c | 61.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 58.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 56.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…9d5dbacked Yes | 23c | 50.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 44c | 50.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 46c | 50.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 72c | 50.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 49.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 50c | 48.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 37c | 48.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed No | 63c | 47.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 30c | 47.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 60c | 45.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 44.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 37c | 43.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked No | 65c | 43.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 51c | 43.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 40c | 42.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb51…329bbacked Yes | 72c | 41.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 41.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed No | 73c | 41.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 67c | 37.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 35.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked No | 75c | 33.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +11.6wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 31.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 28.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 79c | 21.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 60c | 21.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 62c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 20.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.