Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb881f1a367098aaf7726431f47d35afccc6e74729102c0300865b960cd6c8fd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,785$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.43 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 75c | 600.46$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.24 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 536.34$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 52c | 474.76$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.28 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 327.35$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 302.4$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 51c | 295.58$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 283$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 279.16$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.83 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 273.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 251.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 227$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 209.89$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 207.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 205.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 201.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 66c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.03 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 54c | 185.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 181.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 179.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 43c | 166.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 77c | 156.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 154.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed No | 65c | 153.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.46 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 38c | 133.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 35c | 127.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 47c | 127$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 125.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 51c | 123.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 117.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 46c | 112.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 47c | 109.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 45c | 99.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42d…bd2dbacked Yes | 54c | 99.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +175.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 47c | 95.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 94.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.34 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 93.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 46c | 93.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 48c | 91.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…1586backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 47c | 86.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 46c | 85.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 57c | 84.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 65c | 81.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 48c | 81.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 46c | 78.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 76.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 58c | 76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 48c | 75.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 48c | 68.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 49c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 39c | 63.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 62.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 37c | 62.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…52dcbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…7d9cbacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 58.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 62c | 56.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 52c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 53.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…2cefbacked Yes | 66c | 53.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 49c | 50.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 49c | 50.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 54c | 50.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c74…ab27backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 49.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 34c | 47.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 45.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 54c | 44.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 44.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 53c | 43.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 56c | 40.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f5…6070backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +198.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c67cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 65c | 37.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 50c | 34.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 34.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 33.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 49c | 31.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…fdebbacked Yes | 33c | 31.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 30.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 49c | 29.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 69c | 28.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.