Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5b54ea7ea920a5f7f7f4b255976d85e77279c61214af271206e2f3f6700ce9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8ab…e495backed Over | 38c | 1,151$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.37 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 527 | 50.5%266 W · 261 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed Under | 22c | 947$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.41 | 195 | 53.3%104 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 76c | 805.9$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.49 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 31c | 692.13$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.2 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Under | 50c | 468.1$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.55 | 327 | 55.7%182 W · 145 L | +17.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 63c | 397.09$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Under | 20c | 334.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.11 | 222 | 65.3%145 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Under | 67c | 230$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 136 | 32.4%44 W · 92 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Over | 33c | 230$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 79c | 175.41$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 406 | 41.9%170 W · 236 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…b1bebacked Under | 62c | 160.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 1,132 | 52.5%594 W · 538 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Under | 33c | 154$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.18 | 464 | 52.4%243 W · 221 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 72c | 143$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.82 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…6057backed Over | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Under | 13c | 122$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 192 | 44.3%85 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 246 | 50%123 W · 123 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5283…b53cbacked Over | 48c | 100.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 251 | 48.2%121 W · 130 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe86a…e272backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 246 | 49.2%121 W · 125 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 68c | 74.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 402 | 31.3%126 W · 276 L | -28.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 43c | 47.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 751 | 50.7%381 W · 370 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Under | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 312 | 44.6%139 W · 173 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 487 | 47%229 W · 258 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2055…4542backed Under | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 37c | 39.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Over | 60c | 31.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1,924 | 35.9%691 W · 1,233 L | -97.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 57c | 30.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,357 | 31.2%423 W · 934 L | -129.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- Game Handicap: JDG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)Top Esports won
- Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5)Top Esports won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsTop Esports won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 WinnerJD Gaming won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 WinnerTop Esports won
- LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 WinnerTop Esports won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.