Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5ce917b3aadc4b213991fcb4ade1c93e7ed74e7e337382edfa7c1a49bd15ff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 36c | 1,283$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.59 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 737.99$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.18 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 31c | 719.57$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.36 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 424.88$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.86 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 61c | 399.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.99 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 334.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 33c | 289.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.48 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 67c | 280.1$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.18 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 243.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.72 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 62c | 200$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 187.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 169.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 142.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 123.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 122.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 66c | 121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 120.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 40c | 118.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 113.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 100.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 86.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 80.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 29c | 76.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 71.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 69c | 69.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 53c | 67.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 31c | 64.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 64.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 66c | 63.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 58.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 50.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 33c | 48.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 44.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 68c | 44.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 64c | 37.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 74c | 37.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 75c | 36.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 31c | 36.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 39c | 35.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 35.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 33.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 58c | 32.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 42c | 32.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed No | 64c | 31.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 30.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 28.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 67c | 27.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 50c | 22.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 78c | 17.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 74c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.