TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Royals vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Guardiansof Royals, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,810
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,810 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Royals45c88,920$39,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,684.6838043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Guardians55c30,000$16,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,50048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1295…640dbacked Royals67c20,892$13,981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,980.64520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-66.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Guardians35c13,315$4,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,634.6121847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Royals45c11,736$5,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,283.782,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Guardians56c10,884$6,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,788.9635952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Guardians55c10,500$5,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,72530255.6%168 W · 134 L+14.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals5c9,279$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.651,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…5432backed Guardians56c9,040$5,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,977.613065.4%85 W · 45 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians55c5,850$3,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.51,15349.2%567 W · 586 L-0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians55c5,676$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.142,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Guardians56c5,430$3,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,389.034057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8e2…322bbacked Royals44c5,022$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,209.682133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Guardians34c3,910$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,569.7378445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8086…22b7backed Guardians56c3,907$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.082556%14 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians41c3,630$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.819,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Guardians55c3,600$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.996547.7%31 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Guardians56c3,020$1,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,326.931,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Royals68c3,000$2,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,050.4569249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…2c9abacked Royals64c2,667$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.59135.2%32 W · 59 L-12.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Guardians55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.956451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Guardians55c2,450$1,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.51,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Royals45c2,370$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.4460249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Guardians55c2,265$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.11,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Guardians27c1,880$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.38,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Guardians36c1,705$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.212,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Guardians36c1,589$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,017.086,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Royals44c1,566$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68957744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Guardians56c1,536$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$675.841,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…114dbacked Guardians34c1,500$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.792347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cf…7188backed Guardians56c1,393$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Royals45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4507443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Guardians55c915$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.7520748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed Royals45c900.89$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.44341.9%18 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Royals45c888$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.61,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa468…816ebacked Royals57c858.09$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4859349.5%46 W · 47 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Royals45c799.99$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36083248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked Guardians43c651.34$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.986949.3%34 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Royals44c559.57$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.081,29347.3%611 W · 682 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1037…413fbacked Guardians36c539.68$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.4914055.7%78 W · 62 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Guardians38c526.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.5895930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Guardians39c512.82$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.8213946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Royals44c506$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6417946.4%83 W · 96 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Royals45c499.96$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.981,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x438f…28fabacked Guardians55c460.93$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.425756.1%32 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa5…be51backed Royals46c460.87$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Guardians56c456$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.6420747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Guardians55c455.56$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20528258.5%165 W · 117 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Royals44c454.93$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.421,44550%723 W · 722 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Royals44c454.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Guardians55c447.53$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.399947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Royals45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa93…afc1backed Guardians55c436.36$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.361258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb3…4091backed Royals44c418.69$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1856731.3%21 W · 46 L-10.9wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-33.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals37c401.48$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.344,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee5…ca6bbacked Guardians36c388.89$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8921748.4%105 W · 112 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians55c379$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.551,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c8…2223backed Royals69c365.16$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.962343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.0wins-0.22per pick65cpaid-34.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Royals10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Guardians55c272.73$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.731,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c8…9be5backed Guardians56c251.79$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.792055%11 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Royals45c250$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.533140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Guardians56c243.19$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.273149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Royals66c241.95$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6914966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76dd…59e8backed Royals72c233.56$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick71cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Guardians67c233$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.746,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5c4…a9e7backed Royals45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Guardians56c216.07$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0799951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Guardians27c203$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.1970841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Guardians36c200$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12840352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians55c184.81$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.161,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.572,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Guardians56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.571,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffbc…b889backed Guardians56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.576866.2%45 W · 23 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Guardians57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.442,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Guardians31c167.85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.211,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Royals45c166.67$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Guardians56c153$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.3234051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Royals48c150$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.547745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Royals69c144.71$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.854060%24 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadc4…1ce3backed Royals45c140$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6318446.2%85 W · 99 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4591…d19ebacked Royals45c133.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014146.1%65 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Royals45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b70…788bbacked Guardians56c110.71$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.712369.6%16 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+35.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83c2…1193backed Guardians56c107.14$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.14850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Guardians33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6745732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Royals12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.92,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Guardians56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441,30256.7%738 W · 564 L-1.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Royals42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.54531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Royals12c95.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5151334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Royals27c93$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.231,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ff…1eb6backed Guardians56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.291553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Royals45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011147.7%53 W · 58 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9709…72babacked Royals45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+34.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Royals45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4049348.3%238 W · 255 L+15.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Guardians56c86$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8440629.1%118 W · 288 L-2.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd971…4471backed Guardians56c80.14$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.264768.1%32 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf36…94e8backed Guardians56c80$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.214949%73 W · 76 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Guardians56c72$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6826650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Guardians56c71.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.431,39655.2%770 W · 626 L-28.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.