Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6435faebc43eea4d73222202455ec5b1ffc73c2426d3003a5af1826b8f125d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d1a…ebcebacked Under | 55c | 5,504$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,503.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 28c | 2,486$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.83 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 44c | 1,940$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.9 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 23c | 1,428$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.36 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 44c | 1,097$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.97 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 70c | 428.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.74 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 74c | 422.11$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 60c | 406.67$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.67 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 7c | 298$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 233.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.18 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 69c | 206.95$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…77cdbacked Under | 65c | 179$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 47c | 128.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Under | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 18c | 102.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 33c | 97.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 72c | 97.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 31c | 67.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 73c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 51c | 59.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Over | 44c | 55.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 21c | 51.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Under | 61c | 49.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…4ccdbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5this page
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 0.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- Spread: Borussia Mönchengladbach (-2.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)Borussia Mönchengladbach won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.