NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd692458f10fb1dc119a22a8076ddd6d0d5bda2e36019e26d0e72e1415ffe5cd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,695 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 2,379$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.25 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 2,158$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,157 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0936…6c02backed Under | 53c | 1,226$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 53c | 1,049$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 776.47$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 662$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.4 | 313 | 54.3%170 W · 143 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 21c | 635.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 566$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Over | 47c | 488.89$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 53c | 463.83$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.83 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 390$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.65 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 45c | 244.26$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…c65dbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 56c | 174.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 141.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 127.5$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.81 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 30c | 126.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Under | 53c | 103.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 53c | 94.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under | 53c | 94.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 649 | 44.7%290 W · 359 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…278fbacked Under | 53c | 90.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Over | 49c | 80.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 47c | 61.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 59.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 51c | 56.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Under | 55c | 52.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 51.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 161 | 41.6%67 W · 94 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x277c…e529backed Over | 45c | 41.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 42c | 40.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 47c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 464 | 47.8%222 W · 242 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 32.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…d87bbacked Over | 48c | 26.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 47c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…ab6bbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Bulls won
- Al Horford: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Al Horford: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Al Horford: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Bulls vs. WarriorsBulls won
- Bulls vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- De'Anthony Melton: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Draymond Green: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Draymond Green: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Gui Santos: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Jalen Smith: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Points O/U 12.5Yes won
- Kristaps Porzingis: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Warriors (-5.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.