NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ad684e506efef6b129710d5b60aa3e509e9a0d099d51658ed723b8f76d5791
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Celtics, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 45c | 2,277$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.24 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 1,654$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.46 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Celtics | 44c | 1,616$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Celtics | 53c | 1,519$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.07 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Celtics | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.09 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05db…47d9backed Celtics | 55c | 1,111$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Celtics | 57c | 883.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 614.55$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Celtics | 55c | 560$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.2 | 221 | 38%84 W · 137 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Trail Blazers | 56c | 519.53$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.37 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Celtics | 55c | 365.82$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Celtics | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Celtics | 52c | 191.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Celtics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…ed5bbacked Celtics | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Celtics | 55c | 179.96$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 159.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Celtics | 55c | 143.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Celtics | 47c | 122.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.71 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Celtics | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 127 | 63%80 W · 47 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Celtics | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 78.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Celtics | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 67.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Celtics | 59c | 62.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Celtics | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a3…d89bbacked Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…6834backed Celtics | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Celtics | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Trail Blazers | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Celtics | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Celtics | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…6a7ebacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 21.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Celtics | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-5.5)this page
- Celtics vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Celtics vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Under won
- Celtics vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Spread: Celtics (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Celtics (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.