TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open, Qualification ATP: Braden Shick vs Clement Tabur

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Braden Shickof Braden Shick, Clement Tabur
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,851

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Clement Tabur44c27,326$12,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,057.488,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3a1…bf4bbacked Braden Shick48c14,286$6,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,428.5711450.9%58 W · 56 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Clement Tabur62c8,045$5,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,020.2311,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Braden Shick71c6,899$4,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,000.89558.9%56 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Braden Shick65c6,781$4,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.058,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Braden Shick42c4,189$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,417.234,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Braden Shick39c2,156$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,323.844,24152.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L+65.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Clement Tabur30c1,575$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48054541.7%227 W · 318 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Clement Tabur49c1,424$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.763,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x796f…00f6backed Clement Tabur62c1,351$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.415545.2%70 W · 85 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Clement Tabur56c1,239$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.011,72948.9%845 W · 884 L+53.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2de2…11a9backed Braden Shick44c1,136$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.3610346.6%48 W · 55 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a03…92d3backed Braden Shick48c1,075$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.8511850%59 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Braden Shick58c862$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.041,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Clement Tabur61c819.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50094068.1%640 W · 300 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Clement Tabur67c802.98$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.314,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634a…dddfbacked Clement Tabur32c676.95$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21530647.7%146 W · 160 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cd2…7f85backed Braden Shick75c666.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.675350.9%27 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2938…235fbacked Braden Shick51c650.49$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.743046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Braden Shick49c542.66$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.275,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Clement Tabur57c535.3$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.721,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Clement Tabur57c519.3$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29662457.7%360 W · 264 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0598…3d83backed Clement Tabur36c499.11$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18013938.8%54 W · 85 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b96…cea8backed Clement Tabur32c468.75$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505834.5%20 W · 38 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Braden Shick42c441.82$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.542,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Clement Tabur56c423.52$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.64,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Clement Tabur60c412.51$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.61,62449.8%809 W · 815 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Clement Tabur29c400$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.819,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Clement Tabur29c395.71$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.341,42944.2%631 W · 798 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Clement Tabur57c389.32$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.711,67948.1%808 W · 871 L+36.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Braden Shick72c382.82$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.061,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Clement Tabur51c353.28$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.8542946.4%199 W · 230 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6155…bb9ebacked Clement Tabur33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x04c7…c7a7backed Clement Tabur59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17718551.4%95 W · 90 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Braden Shick43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1712334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Braden Shick43c299.98$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.992,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd058…d8fcbacked Clement Tabur60c279.21$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.194452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b3…145dbacked Clement Tabur58c258.54$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15091754%495 W · 422 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Clement Tabur47c236.76$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.712,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Braden Shick56c236.14$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7688358.2%514 W · 369 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca64…4f43backed Braden Shick43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.566055%33 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Clement Tabur58c227.93$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.230648.4%148 W · 158 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5513…de2abacked Braden Shick54c222.38$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.1278838.2%301 W · 487 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8468…3860backed Clement Tabur33c212.12$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7024231%75 W · 167 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8c2…2d18backed Clement Tabur10c210$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x085d…c89ebacked Braden Shick75c199.99$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Braden Shick43c196.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.291,03150.3%519 W · 512 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Clement Tabur51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018454.3%100 W · 84 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Braden Shick40c195$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2433235.2%117 W · 215 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Braden Shick44c189.26$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.992,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Braden Shick42c185$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.31,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa52…865bbacked Braden Shick56c183.5$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.725366%35 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Braden Shick44c170.45$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4532747.7%156 W · 171 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed Clement Tabur59c170$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.347058.5%275 W · 195 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cdd…db30backed Clement Tabur29c162.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4718724.6%46 W · 141 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x398f…30f2backed Braden Shick62c156.28$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.6716941.4%70 W · 99 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Braden Shick32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.252,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbe…c65dbacked Braden Shick72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Braden Shick42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874736.2%17 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa132…6655backed Braden Shick43c147.79$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.2412057.5%69 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8c…e040backed Braden Shick50c140.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.4164837.5%243 W · 405 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x71fe…d3ccbacked Braden Shick57c138.54$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.24580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Clement Tabur58c137$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4638931.4%122 W · 267 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Braden Shick65c134$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2935357.2%202 W · 151 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Braden Shick51c133.46$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.013,06857.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L+173.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Clement Tabur61c132.37$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4952847%248 W · 280 L-19.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb720…da75backed Clement Tabur60c126.74$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.435164.7%227 W · 124 L+20.8wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92f5…52a2backed Braden Shick65c123.99$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7614945%67 W · 82 L-0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…7f73backed Braden Shick43c110$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.719151.8%99 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Clement Tabur40c108$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.24,92138.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L-20.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…ef3dbacked Braden Shick64c104.29$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4329552.2%154 W · 141 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f76…dcc9backed Braden Shick57c102.14$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9191051%464 W · 446 L+23.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Braden Shick57c101.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.461,06554.7%583 W · 482 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5404…5e58backed Clement Tabur31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.568430%205 W · 479 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b2…9980backed Clement Tabur31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3122143.9%97 W · 124 L-0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Clement Tabur58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Braden Shick43c94$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.5885748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Braden Shick40c92$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.255241.3%228 W · 324 L-2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca1…fc25backed Braden Shick66c88.99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6912661.1%77 W · 49 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Braden Shick52c88.31$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.393,22040.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L+28.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7627…4f75backed Clement Tabur57c81.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.395145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5803…3f3fbacked Braden Shick62c80.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0985348.9%417 W · 436 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Braden Shick59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.81,83759.2%1,088 W · 749 L+8.4wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Braden Shick63c77.92$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8327549.1%135 W · 140 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58b…dd02backed Clement Tabur26c70.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.324930.6%15 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2326…b627backed Braden Shick70c65.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.751,25665.4%821 W · 435 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x403c…7f06backed Clement Tabur60c63.23$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9410451%53 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c9…f4dabacked Braden Shick67c62.69$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.695251.9%27 W · 25 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac08…3f5fbacked Braden Shick40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+32.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Braden Shick44c62.16$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8136040%144 W · 216 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Clement Tabur53c60.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.451,71053.7%918 W · 792 L+30.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Clement Tabur34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2041440.3%167 W · 247 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b05…17f1backed Clement Tabur35c58.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d10…780bbacked Clement Tabur26c57.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,02554%554 W · 471 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55e7…4fb9backed Braden Shick40c57.4$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4443553.1%231 W · 204 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df7…1ec1backed Clement Tabur35c57.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11,85357.7%1,069 W · 784 L+106.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Braden Shick38c54.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347,04939.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L-20.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Braden Shick77c54.39$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.737,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d2…a218backed Clement Tabur58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-30.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fe8…72bcbacked Braden Shick54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2353657.8%310 W · 226 L+35.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.