Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd756cf798f2ecceb0f1071d57e4d92f52e0876a7c29074194cadc72d62b9ba0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cbd…3ab8backed Yes | 1c | 6,349$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,428$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.15 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 544.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.54 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 396.02$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 381.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 353.37$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 306.36$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 73c | 284.92$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.93 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 73c | 274.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 245.92$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 24c | 210.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…3256backed Yes | 27c | 185.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 173.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 30c | 170.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 154.01$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 131.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 20c | 127.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 123.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 115.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 28c | 108.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf707…e8cebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 97.52$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbef…6318backed Yes | 31c | 91.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 87.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 85.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 79.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 25c | 78.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 30c | 75.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 21c | 73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 71.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 70.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 22c | 69.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 70c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 67.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 67.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 62.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 72c | 61.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 73c | 60.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 19c | 59.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 57.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acb…faeebacked No | 79c | 51.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 22c | 49.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…7be5backed Yes | 24c | 43.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed No | 73c | 40.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 74c | 40.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 76c | 39.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 37.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 80c | 36.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 33.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 79c | 28.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 75c | 25.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 74c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 75c | 22.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 73c | 21.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 20.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…1352backed No | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23c…e889backed No | 79c | 13.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 53 | 71.7%38 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…9811backed No | 80c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.