Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7134d0048b4fe4b44601e8474cc3b9f8ceebf4177f217fb5a294be4e7e2819d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 16c | 1,227$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.3 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 983.47$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 912.88$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 891.12$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 851.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 18c | 433.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.57 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 20c | 432.58$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.26 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 18c | 224.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 213.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 202.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 18c | 190.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 185.65$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 59c | 185.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 177.95$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 21c | 174$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.09 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…da2cbacked Yes | 20c | 173$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 19c | 170.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.65 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 14c | 162.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.81 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.99$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 18c | 158.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 157.48$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 113.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39d3backed Yes | 22c | 111$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.11 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbd…3ab8backed Yes | 28c | 108.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 80c | 106.28$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 72c | 103.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…b997backed Yes | 37c | 102.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 101.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 99.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 96.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 93.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…8d1cbacked Yes | 19c | 92.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 75c | 89.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 87.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 24c | 82.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 82.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 14c | 82.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes | 35c | 78.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 78.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 75.96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 26c | 74.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 31c | 64.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 28c | 64.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 26c | 61.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.23 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 55.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 53.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 80c | 52.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 51.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 68c | 50.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 45.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 35c | 38.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 75c | 36.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 76c | 36.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 33.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 74c | 26.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc508…70acbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 71c | 19.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 61c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 76c | 17.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 14.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.