TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$29,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,167 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777f…d8b2backed No15c2,062$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749.56418.8%12 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes50c1,671$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.74,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes51c1,164$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.411,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed No15c1,105$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.7654234.9%189 W · 353 L-30.1wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed No18c571.42$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.8320231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No53c561.14$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.641,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No32c469.7$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.653,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c456.01$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No50c451.71$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.841,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No21c434.29$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.24,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes60c433.86$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26031943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No10c330.26$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.234,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e97…96cebacked No18c310.54$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.68749.4%43 W · 44 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No48c291.57$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No52c282.48$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.436767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed No32c280.12$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.1821451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No55c273.64$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.148,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c271.43$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.264,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c253.22$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.025,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed No51c244.59$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.523545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes44c214.04$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.548,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes40c212.89$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2935325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No51c206.66$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.32,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes76c197.88$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.167040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes74c186.71$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No40c180.5$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.185,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf707…e8cebacked Yes74c180$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.25832.8%19 W · 39 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes53c155.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.941,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7022746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes65c144.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.811343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes67c141.31$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa46e…fec5backed Yes35c141.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502040%8 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c138.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.541,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No52c128$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9463757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No42c125.71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.1370741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No23c124.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c124$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.695,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes48c123.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.0146240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No30c121.21$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.531,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No28c121$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.462,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No26c112.1$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.785158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2546…5155backed Yes80c110$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8812941.9%54 W · 75 L-13.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No58c108.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7243848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d0…6972backed No55c102.61$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6922959.8%137 W · 92 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.530144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd115…4906backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6213588.1%119 W · 16 L+26.4wins+0.20per pick69cpaid+31.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes39c96.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No24c94.11$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.972,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbef…6318backed Yes45c90.81$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.04520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-51.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No11c89.6$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.431,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No40c89.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x34b0…05a6backed Yes39c88.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7faa…c757backed No51c88.44$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.075248.1%25 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No35c87.79$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.361,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes40c86.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3687629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff82…bd3cbacked No43c85.38$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.661866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x367c…8689backed Yes45c81.88$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371020%2 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fc4…acc4backed Yes32c78.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.22638.5%10 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89cc…9e01backed No51c76.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.089752.6%51 W · 46 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No63c76.13$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.831,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c75.85$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No52c73.35$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9411157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes78c72.16$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5834067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes40c70.93$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0525935.1%91 W · 168 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c70$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.33,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed No49c69.9$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4415345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5787…1f86backed No43c69.54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5523560%141 W · 94 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f52…3785backed Yes57c68.86$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18dc…5e90backed Yes38c67.07$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.789846.9%46 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No46c65.53$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.531,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes51c65.11$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.212,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed No48c65.11$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.615246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No44c62.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.093,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc399…53abbacked No21c61.77$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.557231.9%23 W · 49 L-8.5wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No50c61.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.531,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No26c60.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No39c60.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.71,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.094,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ccf…cd14backed No30c59.89$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.783844.7%17 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes47c58.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No49c54.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No24c52.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.062,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes58c52.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4958358%338 W · 245 L-2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e8…fdaabacked Yes46c50.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4370%0 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes46c50.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9318038.9%70 W · 110 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2816045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf07f…8a62backed No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x166c…bf05backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+36.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab9…8ba6backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2630442.8%130 W · 174 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed No47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.510147.5%48 W · 53 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No46c46.76$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2533654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c44.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.552,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes48c44.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.265,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc87…bdc8backed Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes45c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e0…6392backed Yes70c42.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.795358.5%31 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No50c40.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4913551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.244366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61bf…9862backed No30c39.57$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.572321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.