Champions League · resolved market
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e4d7ea2ed9a1083b6f3e00d0b9acc94731ab3a9557bcd605824266b578915a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 13c | 7,536$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.48 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 6,150$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.36 | 2,025 | 43.7%884 W · 1,141 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3053…1662backed Over | 13c | 5,500$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Over | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 6c | 3,079$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.03 | 435 | 37.9%165 W · 270 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6544…4b74backed Over | 14c | 2,314$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Over | 5c | 2,043$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 14c | 1,364$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd16…d24dbacked Over | 12c | 1,331$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.72 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c29…79b6backed Over | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 9c | 999.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…d54dbacked Over | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Over | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 14c | 661.48$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 9c | 608.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 553.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 13c | 444.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe10c…e7e2backed Over | 14c | 391.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Over | 6c | 356.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 14c | 315.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 14c | 249.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Over | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…6dd8backed Over | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Over | 14c | 185.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…d280backed Over | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 15c | 147.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 14c | 139.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 36.8%56 W · 96 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 13c | 118.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441f…3a8ebacked Over | 14c | 113.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…e110backed Over | 14c | 109.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Over | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 14c | 103.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.