Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee35a612c7e539eab98285d594f1a7e3ac8348883f1bd3c8eaa6b5617e7f7191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Club Atlético de Madridof Arsenal FC, Club Atlético de Madrid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 15,678$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.9 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 8,166$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.84 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 7,864$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.52 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 6,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Arsenal FC | 9c | 2,557$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.33 | 159 | 38.4%61 W · 98 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 1,442$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.84 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…adbebacked Arsenal FC | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 785.83$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.87 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC | 3c | 671.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Arsenal FC | 12c | 653.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 632.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…76bfbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 617.28$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…b3a6backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0f…c7e8backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 551.67$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.75 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 480.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 397.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 386.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 329.56$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.73 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 319.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Arsenal FC | 8c | 236.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 189.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Arsenal FC | 10c | 188.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 186$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 142 | 20.4%29 W · 113 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 153.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 127.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…f3c0backed Arsenal FC | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 116$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 92.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3d…f1eabacked Arsenal FC | 17c | 85.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Arsenal FC | 13c | 81.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 80.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…29b9backed Arsenal FC | 17c | 75.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…2d10backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 70.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Arsenal FC | 18c | 67.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 65.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5Under won
- Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.