La Liga · resolved market
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd86660dd6752d02c466e442b81e5d9bc9d809b396e41bffc8fc55544ed517566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,426 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 21c | 2,336$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.56 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 79c | 1,911$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.31 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 1,869$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.3 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa792…5353backed Over | 79c | 1,468$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.35 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 67cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 598.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.9 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 379.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc35b…6eb2backed Over | 80c | 360$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 20c | 331.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.37 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 20c | 280.63$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 24c | 270.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 76c | 249.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 80c | 206$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…33f4backed Over | 79c | 101.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +178.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…d6a2backed Over | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 22c | 96.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x125f…b7e8backed Over | 79c | 64.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d88fbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 90 | 71.1%64 W · 26 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 79c | 58.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Over | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Over | 78c | 32.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd475…35c5backed Over | 78c | 27.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked Over | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Over | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…2b46backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…8e52backed Over | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…b014backed Over | 79c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5this page
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.