La Liga · resolved market
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5d4c4222eb44bea661345d9906f2582f19c57ae7b6230d637b9faff6bce627e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,230 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Over | 17c | 29,694$5,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,646.42 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 13,812$10,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,514.1 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 76c | 5,275$4,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,009.14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf053…3939backed Under | 77c | 4,741$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650.57 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…71b4backed Under | 55c | 3,663$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Under | 51c | 3,000$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 58c | 2,058$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.07 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 25c | 1,749$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,309.89 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 5c | 1,001$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…6007backed Under | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…22a0backed Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1263…fddcbacked Over | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…cc36backed Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 51c | 996.23$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.23 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…d343backed Over | 62c | 974.86$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…17c5backed Over | 41c | 783.48$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 712.14$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.19 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…8f93backed Under | 4c | 710.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 96 | 11.5%11 W · 85 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb31…3bf2backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 62c | 495$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 52c | 483.08$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.08 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.44 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 361.14$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.43 | 1,662 | 43.7%727 W · 935 L | -23.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…c561backed Over | 25c | 260$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +57%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…073fbacked Over | 61c | 225.41$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 61c | 211.48$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 130 | 70.8%92 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 7c | 201$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Under | 53c | 189.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Under | 57c | 175.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Under | 64c | 155.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 64.1%50 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 44c | 129.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 45c | 127.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 24c | 122.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.73 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Over | 62c | 118.31$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Over | 24c | 115.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 37c | 111.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.61 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc01a…b014backed Over | 61c | 110.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 15c | 106.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc5…ada3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 62c | 90.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 27c | 89.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 288 | 46.5%134 W · 154 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…65dcbacked Over | 61c | 86.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Under | 71c | 70.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5501…e914backed Over | 17c | 65.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 27c | 64.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 65c | 61.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…91c3backed Under | 39c | 59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 60c | 56.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…526abacked Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 849 | 39.7%337 W · 512 L | -21.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…ffddbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 56c | 39.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 190 | 42.1%80 W · 110 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 30c | 39.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…f69fbacked Under | 67c | 32.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…3faabacked Under | 68c | 28.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 78c | 28.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 324 | 44.8%145 W · 179 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da2…31e3backed Under | 77c | 25.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd400…28b8backed Under | 65c | 24.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…3af6backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb1…f87dbacked Over | 62c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…da1bbacked Under | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5this page
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5Over won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5Over won
- Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-1.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol (-2.5)Club Atlético de Madrid won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.