AI · resolved market
ChatGPT Full Outage by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a4dde2fbbf3261c5f61dddd3bb931e9b21181cebff802fbb308f538b5212e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 828.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 10c | 573.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 7c | 553.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…86c4backed Yes | 10c | 499.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 439$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 6c | 283$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 9c | 162.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed No | 68c | 146.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 18c | 132.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 18c | 130$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2148…d0a7backed Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 16c | 124.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 115.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 10c | 107$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…fc29backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…c0a8backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…5ed4backed No | 69c | 24.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.