TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,917
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,917 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Thunder52c26,792$13,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,891.5872648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Nuggets48c10,102$4,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,253.1240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Nuggets69c7,910$5,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,489.1942348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Nuggets48c6,514$3,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,387.3937355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Nuggets64c5,231$3,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,889.612,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed Nuggets48c5,037$2,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.2710860.2%65 W · 43 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+109.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Thunder33c4,061$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.6419937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Thunder42c3,782$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.571,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder28c3,138$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$885.533,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Nuggets49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6975…11c1backed Nuggets64c2,686$1,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.063246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Nuggets48c2,050$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.9852951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder50c1,865$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.261,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Thunder52c1,481$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.234953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Thunder37c1,346$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.663,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2e…896dbacked Nuggets47c1,296$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.716043.3%26 W · 34 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Thunder50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55045146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Nuggets50c1,071$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.2882442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Nuggets66c993.7$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.7927645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder36c961.6$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.181,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Nuggets52c933.85$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.251947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Thunder34c653.07$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0434255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6076…f8fdbacked Thunder45c640.11$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.4120346.3%94 W · 109 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Thunder46c622.7$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.1689850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Thunder51c574.6$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.041,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Thunder52c560.31$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.3632450.3%163 W · 161 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Thunder42c530.54$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.2591846.2%424 W · 494 L+1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Thunder40c477.41$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8595452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Thunder35c470.5$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.747648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Thunder42c451.85$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.852,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder29c392.17$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.812,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Thunder51c380.62$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1276250.4%384 W · 378 L+3.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf97d…b295backed Thunder53c362.2$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.972035%7 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-33.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x06d0…7ee5backed Thunder52c321.06$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.955040%20 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Thunder14c303.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6818844.7%84 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Nuggets48c266.42$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5424949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Nuggets48c245.6$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.713,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Thunder40c241$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.461638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a7…7052backed Nuggets58c234$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.281040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Nuggets49c207.97$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0615650%78 W · 78 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Nuggets48c204.79$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.481,39946.4%649 W · 750 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f04…4e5fbacked Nuggets48c201.83$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.952075%15 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+32.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64d6…aedbbacked Nuggets51c194.87$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4910657.5%61 W · 45 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Nuggets55c194.6$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5745445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe544…3cfcbacked Nuggets50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9710251%52 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d16…c595backed Thunder51c191.61$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Thunder37c185.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.597345.2%33 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdbe…e45bbacked Nuggets48c181.65$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.465843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Nuggets60c152.45$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.641,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2aae…16e6backed Nuggets68c151.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.512458.9%73 W · 51 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Thunder39c138.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6436949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb18d…3464backed Nuggets80c124.19$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.415160.8%31 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Thunder45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Thunder51c117.04$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6923549.4%116 W · 119 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Nuggets49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5138464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Thunder35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3533360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7e…c00abacked Nuggets50c97$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.518839.9%75 W · 113 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa53f…8c53backed Thunder51c95.16$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.532254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Thunder52c93.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5644347.2%209 W · 234 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Thunder52c93.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5636852.2%192 W · 176 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Thunder43c89.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3237848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Nuggets59c82.61$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8710050%50 W · 50 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Nuggets49c82$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.11,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe488…f954backed Thunder53c75.6$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.021353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+54.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Thunder40c74.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.251,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x7793…33a6backed Thunder50c65.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8829344.4%130 W · 163 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Thunder20c64.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9545445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x788e…e086backed Thunder52c63.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.283345.5%15 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Thunder50c58.2$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.152461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Thunder52c56.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1457051.9%296 W · 274 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Nuggets48c52.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.071,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x47c7…85cbbacked Thunder51c44.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.761838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8796…c744backed Thunder50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207147.9%34 W · 37 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10a1…c3bebacked Nuggets63c33.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.381478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.1wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+81%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2bba…571ebacked Nuggets50c31.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.525100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+99.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Thunder51c29.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1411232.1%36 W · 76 L-17.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-33.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Thunder38c28.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0316020%32 W · 128 L-27.0wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-42.7%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Nuggets56c28.66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6137753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5067…ccb4backed Thunder53c20.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.691050%5 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+61.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x083b…d867backed Nuggets72c18.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92f…dc7cbacked Nuggets71c17.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2215100%15 W · 0 L+5.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.8%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.