NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xecb4225252797a2d7eed029fc7ad760b605f8febeb42bee6e5c7955258b9f17a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 8,762$4,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030.52 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 46c | 2,493$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.6 | 116 | 39.7%46 W · 70 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Under | 46c | 2,004$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.75 | 199 | 37.2%74 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba78…273ebacked Over | 52c | 1,206$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Over | 78c | 1,002$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.7 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…44dcbacked Under | 48c | 968.8$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 706.4$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.13 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 31c | 699.21$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.69 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Under | 48c | 605.5$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.64 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 13c | 500.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 75c | 459.1$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.77 | 303 | 48.2%146 W · 157 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 52c | 410$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -13.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 41c | 393.86$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.34 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 49c | 311.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.84 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 35c | 288.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…0270backed Over | 70c | 280.57$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 277 | 45.8%127 W · 150 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 23c | 234.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Over | 49c | 190.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f47…6397backed Over | 49c | 190.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 174.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 20c | 171.36$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 54c | 171.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.94 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Over | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 65c | 132.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 25c | 130.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 275 | 53.5%147 W · 128 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 51c | 121.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 492 | 47.2%232 W · 260 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 51c | 121.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 407 | 50.6%206 W · 201 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc75…5431backed Over | 52c | 119.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Over | 52c | 119.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Under | 26c | 99.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 132 | 48.5%64 W · 68 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ec…1cc8backed Over | 49c | 97.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…f3e3backed Under | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3118…211cbacked Under | 19c | 83.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 50c | 81.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 52c | 60.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 25c | 49.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 29c | 48.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Over | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 46c | 42.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 49c | 41.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4240…0df4backed Over | 55c | 38.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Over | 71c | 31.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bba…571ebacked Over | 54c | 27.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Over | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ba…0bc3backed Under | 46c | 23.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 63c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 394 | 49.2%194 W · 200 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…3528backed Over | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Over | 78c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.