NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8031a5b3ed328fa0391230c5976ae850ebe4e3aa176fe582748368f77299ff6f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.73 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 76c | 2,156$1,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.92 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 52c | 1,330$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.25 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 35c | 1,103$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.23 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcc…0d8abacked Over | 28c | 830.65$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Under | 53c | 654.08$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.35 | 369 | 54.7%202 W · 167 L | +28.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 50c | 582.45$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.45 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 23c | 568.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.83 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 500.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 61c | 465.56$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.2 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…8b9abacked Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 386.44$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.32 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 69c | 352.19$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.03 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 59c | 342.7$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.46 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 61c | 310.38$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.14 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Over | 23c | 294.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 48c | 291.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.74 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…e8edbacked Over | 20c | 285.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.38 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Over | 37c | 274.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 31c | 242.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.79 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…52f4backed Over | 20c | 238$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…6ce4backed Under | 72c | 209.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.31 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Under | 64c | 199.92$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…7b58backed Over | 43c | 193.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +70%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…9e21backed Under | 53c | 181.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6510…36d1backed Under | 41c | 155.64$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 61c | 155.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 61c | 155.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 61c | 155.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 61c | 155.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 61c | 155.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 61c | 155.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 46c | 139$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…b695backed Under | 63c | 122.26$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Under | 71c | 113.5$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 423 | 48.5%205 W · 218 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 60c | 101.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Over | 48c | 101.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…29bdbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 126 | 37.3%47 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f0…d345backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Over | 20c | 99.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Under | 59c | 99.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 50c | 98.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 45c | 98.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Under | 61c | 97.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.25 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 29c | 95.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Under | 48c | 92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Under | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 46c | 84.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Over | 46c | 80.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 57c | 79.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Over | 49c | 79.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 342 | 47.7%163 W · 179 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 21c | 76.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 43c | 75.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 58c | 65.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 64.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b65…6b1bbacked Under | 61c | 64.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 20c | 60.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Over | 27c | 55.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ee…0f22backed Over | 42c | 50.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 387 | 36.4%141 W · 246 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 40c | 49.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9945…bfa6backed Over | 49c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed Under | 72c | 46.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Under | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…d4d7backed Over | 49c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 28c | 39.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 59c | 36.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 42c | 35.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 248 | 41.9%104 W · 144 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 59c | 29.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 417 | 53.2%222 W · 195 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 52c | 29.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 58c | 23.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Under | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under | 65c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 72c | 17.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…fbedbacked Under | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Jamal Murray: Points O/U 6.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-10.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-11.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-2.5)Nuggets won
- Thunder vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Nuggets: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.