TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Thunder, Nuggets
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,988 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed Nuggets67c2,500$1,675 inWon+$82579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Thunder34c2,225$757 inLost-$756.6929243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nuggets60c497.91$296 inWon+$201.592,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Thunder31c314.23$97 inLost-$97.4119650.5%99 W · 97 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Thunder40c293.32$118 inLost-$118.191,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5579…c1febacked Nuggets62c141.14$88 inWon+$53.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Thunder47c98.88$46 inLost-$46.4726545.3%120 W · 145 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Nuggets63c78.58$49 inWon+$29.1655751.9%289 W · 268 L+1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b4a…d477backed Nuggets74c63.82$47 inWon+$16.5510560%63 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Thunder31c60.98$19 inLost-$18.977549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder33c51.1$17 inLost-$16.652,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbcf…20aebacked Thunder47c39.7$19 inLost-$18.6628943.3%125 W · 164 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…be97backed Nuggets78c36.3$28 inWon+$7.991643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x850f…fa71backed Nuggets78c25.3$20 inWon+$5.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.