CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd93272e3668cada73c692597f3c71d9c31fc0176e51ff2b23c4c9e42fa5dca1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof Astralis, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88d1…18dabacked HOTU | 60c | 9,400$5,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,760 | 223 | 54.7%122 W · 101 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Astralis | 49c | 4,055$1,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.03 | 364 | 53.8%196 W · 168 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Astralis | 40c | 2,143$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.04 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | +19.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05e4…8d31backed Astralis | 41c | 1,762$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Astralis | 30c | 1,260$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.73 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed HOTU | 70c | 1,000$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.65 | 500 | 54.4%272 W · 228 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Astralis | 40c | 875$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Astralis | 32c | 805$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.6 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5592…aedebacked HOTU | 68c | 740$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.8 | 193 | 57%110 W · 83 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed HOTU | 69c | 555$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Astralis | 40c | 508.89$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.76 | 1,157 | 48.2%558 W · 599 L | +3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed HOTU | 66c | 382.48$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.44 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa949…7f5bbacked Astralis | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked HOTU | 69c | 260.44$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 222 | 66.7%148 W · 74 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Astralis | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +7.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed HOTU | 68c | 244.4$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Astralis | 34c | 191.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis | 42c | 183.69$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8818…f8acbacked HOTU | 70c | 164.92$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 166 | 60.8%101 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad5…61b0backed Astralis | 56c | 161.51$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Astralis | 56c | 154.53$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…e27cbacked HOTU | 57c | 150.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.96 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Astralis | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8726…0f36backed Astralis | 32c | 147.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 740 | 54.6%404 W · 336 L | +15.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Astralis | 33c | 147.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed HOTU | 68c | 146.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed HOTU | 44c | 145$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 376 | 46.3%174 W · 202 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed HOTU | 69c | 130.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 387 | 54.8%212 W · 175 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…7585backed Astralis | 31c | 129$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 773 | 51.2%396 W · 377 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Astralis | 33c | 118.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 256 | 50.4%129 W · 127 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Astralis | 34c | 111$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 239 | 49%117 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Astralis | 36c | 104.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Astralis | 32c | 80.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Astralis | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked HOTU | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Astralis | 38c | 67.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…3e90backed HOTU | 68c | 65.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked HOTU | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…a16ebacked HOTU | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 485 | 66.2%321 W · 164 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Astralis | 32c | 51.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…2b2fbacked Astralis | 40c | 50.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Astralis | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab4…564fbacked Astralis | 53c | 43.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed HOTU | 36c | 36.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 386 | 50.8%196 W · 190 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed Astralis | 32c | 34.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed HOTU | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…4b8abacked HOTU | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Astralis | 40c | 30.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed HOTU | 45c | 23.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,676 | 51.1%857 W · 819 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked HOTU | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed HOTU | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty QualifierAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5)Astralis won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-3.5) vs Astralis (+3.5)Astralis won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5)HOTU won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.