Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd941647418378a962807c7348351150dc352fd3b6ccd995e5be84d28e73ebf36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed No | 43c | 34,395$14,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,863.04 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 62c | 21,226$13,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,134.72 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b2…f348backed Yes | 26c | 10,110$2,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,481.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…385abacked Yes | 26c | 10,031$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,422.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024d…a6febacked No | 74c | 10,024$7,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,417.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…33ffbacked No | 74c | 10,001$7,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,400.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d17…ac75backed No | 4c | 3,900$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2170…8e8abacked Yes | 69c | 3,703$2,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…d12cbacked Yes | 35c | 2,861$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,865.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 20c | 2,171$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.17 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed No | 41c | 1,652$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.27 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.59 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,470$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.75 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…cf47backed Yes | 34c | 1,178$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 27c | 1,177$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.78 | 197 | 43.7%86 W · 111 L | +32.4wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…c3f5backed No | 4c | 1,150$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 67c | 944.75$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.85 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…4a44backed Yes | 35c | 756.41$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.41 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…b2d1backed No | 66c | 588.24$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0678…9fd0backed Yes | 29c | 522.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…24f9backed Yes | 28c | 496.43$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ae…5124backed Yes | 61c | 473.38$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…5f9dbacked No | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 27c | 370.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.94 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…c206backed Yes | 27c | 364.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…c8c7backed Yes | 61c | 320.13$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 73c | 304.09$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.94 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdacd…cfb2backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 401 | 35.2%141 W · 260 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea2…d89abacked No | 72c | 288.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…8938backed Yes | 34c | 265.56$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.27 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…0a02backed No | 72c | 262.5$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…0e16backed Yes | 28c | 228.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed No | 73c | 221.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x584c…70f7backed Yes | 62c | 212.9$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…bde1backed Yes | 28c | 204.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235c…8c1abacked No | 24c | 176.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a59…dbeabacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e2…dae0backed No | 74c | 140.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Yes | 26c | 139.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 75c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf0…5c64backed No | 75c | 118.05$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 28c | 105.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb43c…d43bbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…1219backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…763bbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…28b8backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…fe6bbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b3…4f6ebacked Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…4678backed No | 74c | 84.69$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a0…97d9backed Yes | 39c | 78.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…8eb5backed No | 74c | 75.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked No | 71c | 72.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 61 | 77%47 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…a64bbacked Yes | 27c | 67.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…70f9backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 74c | 59.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 428 | 62.4%267 W · 161 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6173…4258backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -29%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 27c | 56.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 400 | 46%184 W · 216 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdc…ebf8backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 27c | 52.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 52.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fd…d003backed No | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…a752backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…4bf3backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…53c8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf21b…894ebacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…15b5backed Yes | 33c | 35.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…8d71backed Yes | 32c | 31.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 72c | 30.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc24…e86fbacked No | 74c | 30.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8924backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 140 | 49.3%69 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 197 | 35.5%70 W · 127 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…098abacked Yes | 66c | 21.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-03-09?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-03-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.