Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd96c7101e85e48aaa3cc86f0b56879575dfc35f26c29823634296f40fbcbe9eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- G2 Esportsof G2 Esports, NRG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked G2 Esports | 66c | 2,444$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.09 | 655 | 59.4%389 W · 266 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed G2 Esports | 63c | 1,915$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.72 | 531 | 59.1%314 W · 217 L | +41.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked NRG | 33c | 1,684$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.45 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked G2 Esports | 58c | 1,670$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.56 | 684 | 58.3%399 W · 285 L | +56.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…9f91backed NRG | 19c | 1,608$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.7 | 600 | 22.7%136 W · 464 L | -26.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked G2 Esports | 62c | 1,469$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.43 | 785 | 62.8%493 W · 292 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed G2 Esports | 73c | 1,378$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.18 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed G2 Esports | 68c | 1,271$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.92 | 452 | 50%226 W · 226 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57d…07bfbacked NRG | 33c | 1,187$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 145 | 34.5%50 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed NRG | 33c | 1,120$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.23 | 238 | 36.1%86 W · 152 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Esports | 69c | 1,027$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.5 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf529…755fbacked NRG | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.79 | 103 | 41.7%43 W · 60 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked NRG | 48c | 969.81$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.81 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed NRG | 40c | 941.83$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.36 | 425 | 40.5%172 W · 253 L | -22.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked NRG | 36c | 884.14$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.44 | 1,601 | 37.5%600 W · 1,001 L | -75.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…15c2backed NRG | 53c | 796.51$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked G2 Esports | 55c | 641.04$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.95 | 533 | 55.3%295 W · 238 L | +24.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0188…91babacked NRG | 55c | 566.67$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.67 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed NRG | 45c | 510.83$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.98 | 279 | 47.7%133 W · 146 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2495…28f5backed G2 Esports | 52c | 505$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78db…a291backed G2 Esports | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…20e9backed G2 Esports | 73c | 437.62$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.62 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c2…1e3abacked G2 Esports | 79c | 373.31$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 70cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…f9b2backed NRG | 53c | 340.43$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed NRG | 37c | 337.52$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fa…26d9backed NRG | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked G2 Esports | 49c | 328.63$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493a…0bd2backed NRG | 28c | 308$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd20…24dabacked NRG | 26c | 298.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.17 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked NRG | 37c | 253.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed G2 Esports | 53c | 251$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…6091backed NRG | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0f…e25fbacked G2 Esports | 56c | 240.18$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 52cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed G2 Esports | 53c | 227.08$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.08 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…80fdbacked NRG | 32c | 204$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…9339backed NRG | 35c | 201.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed NRG | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked G2 Esports | 68c | 189.87$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 943 | 61.2%577 W · 366 L | +58.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked G2 Esports | 65c | 189.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.31 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…eaa4backed NRG | 34c | 185.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed NRG | 44c | 182.69$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.93 | 563 | 57.9%326 W · 237 L | +36.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed G2 Esports | 53c | 182.46$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 428 | 40%171 W · 257 L | -22.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked NRG | 37c | 169.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked NRG | 20c | 166.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2469…4812backed NRG | 48c | 157.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed NRG | 33c | 150.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…9bcdbacked G2 Esports | 72c | 137.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2460…e144backed NRG | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…c98bbacked G2 Esports | 66c | 135.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1943…1561backed G2 Esports | 77c | 129.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked NRG | 27c | 128.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 1,309 | 43.8%573 W · 736 L | -44.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked NRG | 31c | 104.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed NRG | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 305 | 44.3%135 W · 170 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ae…3e6cbacked NRG | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed G2 Esports | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 122 | 43.4%53 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0181…9b5fbacked NRG | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 278 | 50%139 W · 139 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…2c42backed NRG | 47c | 96.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…7cedbacked G2 Esports | 72c | 93.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa83d…f813backed G2 Esports | 56c | 88.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked NRG | 37c | 77.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1067…7a84backed NRG | 34c | 77.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e5…c8d1backed NRG | 30c | 76.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed NRG | 40c | 70.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed G2 Esports | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked NRG | 50c | 65.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1,247 | 49.6%619 W · 628 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed G2 Esports | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed50…8f32backed NRG | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed G2 Esports | 70c | 58.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked G2 Esports | 63c | 57.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 420 | 51.9%218 W · 202 L | -21.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed NRG | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…bd88backed NRG | 31c | 51.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed G2 Esports | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked NRG | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 60.1%164 W · 109 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked NRG | 37c | 38.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 888 | 44.4%394 W · 494 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed NRG | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…5369backed G2 Esports | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f77…39f8backed G2 Esports | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NRG | 47c | 23.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd3…4144backed G2 Esports | 59c | 21.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…cc17backed G2 Esports | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Map Handicap: G2 (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5)NRG won
- Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5)G2 Esports won
- Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 PlayoffsG2 Esports won
- Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 2 WinnerNRG won
- Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 3 WinnerG2 Esports won
- Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG - Map 4 WinnerNRG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.