Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda9457a7cd24888fbfff6c9ab57a22186a39cdeb70d5b334b28213db9af18bde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 3c | 1,284$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.25 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 48c | 771.95$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 54c | 603.22$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 47c | 523.01$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.73 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 46c | 472.87$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.84 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 53c | 373.76$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.92 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7d55backed No | 45c | 363$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 50c | 315$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 25c | 314.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 58c | 305.95$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.31 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 60c | 278.2$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.67 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed No | 50c | 276.85$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 265.32$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 45c | 264.6$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 15c | 260.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0319…2f43backed No | 51c | 216.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 199.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 52c | 197.53$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 43c | 183.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 23c | 154.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Yes | 20c | 145.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked No | 54c | 134$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 38c | 114.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.49 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 50c | 110.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 45c | 110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 25c | 105.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 78c | 103.08$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 49c | 96.24$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…1245backed Yes | 49c | 93.65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd776…4fb8backed Yes | 24c | 79.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +194.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Yes | 47c | 79.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 46c | 76.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 26c | 75.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 18c | 71.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 43c | 71.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 36c | 67.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 50c | 65.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3946…b565backed Yes | 52c | 63.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Yes | 52c | 59.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 66c | 57.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 20c | 52.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16ad…b33bbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked Yes | 64c | 46.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 37c | 43.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Yes | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 55c | 33.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 56c | 32.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa936…a18abacked Yes | 49c | 31.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 33c | 30.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 55c | 29.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 80c | 26.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 50c | 25.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 25.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 79c | 18.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 74 | 56.8%42 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 62c | 16.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-03?this page
- Will New York City FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?No won
- Will New York City FC win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.